[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Atlantic Ocean high pressure combined
with low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support
gales pulsing offshore northern Colombia at night into Mon, with
winds possibly reaching 40 kt at times. The sea heights will
range from 12 feet to 13 feet, highest during the morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move
off the Texas coast and enter the western Gulf on Thu followed
by strong to near gale-force winds and building seas. The front
is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz,
Mexico by Fri evening with gale-force winds and building seas
ranging from 6 to 9 ft affecting the Veracruz offshore waters
Fri afternoon and evening. The front will then move very slowly
southeast, gradually pushing across the basin through early Sun
while washing out.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the
gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
02N24W to 03N33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
60 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ axis between 16W and 23W.
Similar convection is also observed from 01S to 01N between 17W
and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf remains under the influence of a ridge extending from a
1045 mb high pressure center off the New England coast. The
latest scatterometer imagery reveals fresh to locally strong SE
winds over the eastern and northeastern Gulf where seas are 6 to
9 ft. Strong southerly winds are in the western and northwestern
Gulf, mainly within 200 nm of the coast, as the pressure
gradient builds between the aforementioned high and low pressure
over Texas. Seas in this area are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh
SE winds dominate elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft

For the forecast, the strong winds in the NW gulf will continue
to grow in areal extent through tonight and then move east
across the northern Gulf through Thu. The next cold front is
expected to enter the western Gulf on Thu followed by strong to
near gale-force winds and building seas. The front will move SE
washing out Sun. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
pulsing gale conditions offshore Colombia.

Mainly strong winds dominate the eastern and central Caribbean,
as well as the Windward Passage as a result of the tight
pressure gradient induced by the strong high pressure north of
the area and lower pressure over Colombia. Seas east of 80W,
including within the Windward Passage, range from 6 to 8 ft. The
exception is south of 15N to the coast of Colombia, seas are 8
to 12 ft. Fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted In the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong winds will expand in areal coverage
across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu. Fresh
to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage
through Mon night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba
will continue through tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade
winds and building seas will prevail over the tropical north
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the basin near 31N45W extending SW to 26N55W
where the boundary transitions to a shearline. The shearline
extends SW to the southeastern Bahamas near 23N73W. Strong NE
winds revealed in an earlier scatterometer satellite pass and
rough seas are behind the front. Near gale force winds maybe be
north of the shearline and south of 28N between 55W and 65W.
Ahead of the front, and N of 25N, high pressure centered over
the Azores is dominating marine weather. Thus, winds are mainly
moderate and seas are 4 to 7 ft. To the S of 23N, fresh trades
dominate, with locally strong NE to E winds within a few hundred
km E of the Lesser Antilles, near and just west of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and near and just S and W of the Canary Islands.
Seas across the swath of Atlantic waters average 7 to 10 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh to near gale-force NE winds to
the west  of the shearline will continue to expand across the
region as high pressure strengthens through Thu. High pressure
will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to
improved conditions. A weaker cold front is forecast to move off
northern Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to Andros
Island Sat night, and stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas
Sun night. High pressure will build across the waters early next
week.

$$
Mora
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