[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1805 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: Atlantic Ocean high pressure,
and comparatively lower surface pressures in northern Colombia, will
continue to support pulsing winds to gale-force offshore of northern
Colombia at night through Sunday night. It is possible that the wind
speeds may reach 40 knots at times. The sea heights will range from
12 feet to 13 feet, around sunrise each morning, before subsiding
through the morning and afternoon hours. Please, read the latest
High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near
07N11W to 03N27W. The ITCZ is not discernible at this moment.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated
strong are from 08N southward from 55W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near 20N and the
coast of Mexico.

Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are in the
southeast Gulf through the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong
winds have developed in the NW Gulf offshore of Texas as the
pressure gradient tightens, between ridging that is to the north of
the basin and lowering surface pressures in central Texas. The sea
heights are ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet, and building. Mainly
moderate to fresh E-SE winds are elsewhere with the surface ridge,
with sea heights ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet. Isolated rainshowers
are possible in the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to locally fresh return flow is across the central basin.
Fresh to strong E and SE winds are elsewhere, including in the
Florida Straits. Fresh to strong southerly return flow, that is in
the NW Gulf, will continue to grow in areal extent through tonight.
These strong winds then will move eastward, through the northern
Gulf Wed night into Thu. The next cold front is expected to enter
the western Gulf on Thu, and extend from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz in Mexico, early on Friday. The front will move very slowly
southeastward, during the start of the weekend, gradually pushing
across the basin through early Sunday, while washing out.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are forecast to return to the coastal waters of
Colombia, tonight, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. Please,
read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details.

Fresh to strong winds are in the Lee of Cuba along with 5 to 7 ft
seas. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are blowing across the
approach to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds cover the
rest of the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades are in
the remainder of the basin. Seas of 7 to 11 ft cover the south
central and SW Caribbean Sea, with 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the trade wind flow.

The wind speeds will pulse to gale force off Colombia each
night through Sun night, while strong winds will expand in areal
coverage across the central Caribbean Sea through Thu night.
Also, fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward
Passage through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of
Cuba will continue through tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade
winds and building seas will prevail over the tropical north
Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N51W 28N60W 26N70W, to the NW
Bahamas and 24N79W. A cold front is about 240 nm to the north of
the stationary front. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the north of the
stationary front. Rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to the
south of the front. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to
13 feet, to the northwest of the stationary front, between 50W
and 60W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet,
from 23N southward, between 45W and 60W. The sea heights are
ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, between 45W and 60W.
The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet, from 27N
southward, between 30W and 45W. The sea heights are ranging from
3 feet to 5 feet, from 27N northward between 30W and 45W. The
sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet, from 09N to 27N,
from 30W eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6
feet, elsewhere, from 30W eastward. Strong to near gale-force
NE-to-E winds are from 12N to 18N between 31W and 35W. Near
gale-force NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Africa,
from 20N near Mauritania, to 23N near the Western Sahara. Strong
NE winds are in the area that is bounded by the points: 31N10W
26N32W 10N38W 15N21W, to the coast of Africa at 15N. Strong NE
winds are from 17N southward between 50W and 61W. Strong to near
gale-force winds are to the northwest of the stationary front,
and within 60 nm to the south of the stationary front.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N34W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, around the cyclonic center and a
trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 27W
and 45W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely
scattered moderate rainshowers, cover the area from 10N to 28N
from 27W eastward.

The stationary front continues from 25N65W northeastward as a
cold front to 31N52W with a trough analyzed ahead of the front
from 30N52W to 24N59W. Scattered showers are possible on either
side of both of these features. Ridging dominates the remainder of
the basin extending from high pressure north of the area over the
Azores. Fresh to strong NE-E trades and resultant 8 to 11 ft seas
are noted south of 20N and west of 44W. Fresh to strong NE winds are
noted from 13N to 31N between the west coast of Africa and 32W,
including through the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft across this area. Moderate to fresh trades and 5
to 8 ft seas prevail elsewhere south of 24N, with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 24N and ahead of
the front.

A stationary front extending from 27N65W SW to
Andros island will gradually weaken today, and then transition
into a shearline through tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds to the
west of the boundary will continue to expand across the region as
high pressure strengthens through Thu. High pressure will settle
into the region at the end of the week leading to improved
conditions. A weaker cold front is forecast to move off northern
Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to Andros Island Sat
night and stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas Sun night.

$$
mt
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