[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1205 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure ridging north and
northeast of the basin over the Atlantic Ocean combined with low
pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing
winds to gale-force offshore of northern Colombia at night through
Sun night. Winds may peak to 40 kt at times. Seas will peak at 12
to 13 ft around sunrise each morning before subsiding through the
morning and afternoon hours. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted within 240 nm southeast and south of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 13W and 26W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 30W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are in the southeast
Gulf through the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong winds have
developed in the NW Gulf offshore of Texas as the pressure
gradient between ridging north of the basin and lowering pressures
over central Texas tightens. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area and
are building. Mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail
elsewhere under the ridging, along with 3 to 6 ft, 3 to 4 ft in
the SW Gulf. Some isolated showers are possible in this flow.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds will persist into
early Thu then diminish as a cold front moves into the NW Gulf.
The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz,
Mexico by early Fri. The front will move very slowly southeast
during the start of the weekend, gradually pushing across the
basin through early Sun while washing out.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The stationary front that was in the NW Caribbean Sea has
dissipated. A surface trough is analyzed along the eastern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong
winds are in the Lee of Cuba along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to
strong winds and seas to 8 ft are blowing across the approach to
the Windward Passage. Outside of the area of gale-force winds,
fresh to strong winds prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the basin.
Seas of 7 to 11 ft prevail in the south-central and SW Caribbean,
with 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. Isolated to scattered showers are
possible on the trade wind flow.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force off Colombia
each night through Sun night, while strong winds will expand in
areal coverage across the central Caribbean Sea tonight through
Thu night. Also, fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the
Windward Passage through Sun night. Fresh to strong NE winds in
the lee of Cuba will continue today with building seas. Otherwise,
trade winds will strengthen and seas will build over the tropical
north Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles today through
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 25N65W SW to the southeast
Bahamas. Fresh to near gale-force winds are noted north of the
front, along with seas of 8 to 12 ft, except 6 to 7 ft north of
29N and west of 70W. Scattered showers are possible in the
vicinity of the front on either side.

The stationary front continues from 25N65W northeastward as a
cold front to 31N52W with a trough analyzed ahead of the front
from 30N52W to 24N59W. Scattered showers are possible on either
side of both of these features. Ridging dominates the remainder of
the basin extending from high pressure north of the area over the
Azores. Fresh to strong NE-E trades and resultant 8 to 11 ft seas
are noted south of 20N and west of 44W. Fresh to strong NE winds
are noted from 13N to 31N between the west coast of Africa and
32W, including through the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde
Islands. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across this area. Moderate to fresh
trades and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail elsewhere south of 24N, with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 4 to 6 ft north
of 24N and ahead of the front.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually
weaken today, transitioning into a shearline by tonight. Fresh to
strong winds to the west of the boundary will expand across the
region as high pressure strengthens through Thu. High pressure
will settle into the region at the end of the week leading to
improved conditions. A weaker cold front is forecast to move off
northern Florida Fri night and extend from 30N65W to Andros Island
Sat night and stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas Sun night.


$$
Lewitsky
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