[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and lower surface pressures in Colombia
and Panama, will continue to support strong to minimal gale-
force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Colombia, mainly at night, through Fri night. Peak wave heights
with these winds are forecast to reach near 12 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Keys southwestward to the western Caribbean Sea. In
the wake of this front, scatterometer data from this afternoon
shows gale-force northwest to north winds confined to the SW Gulf
S of 21N and W of 95W, including the offshore waters of
Veracruz, Mexico. Strong NW to N winds are elsewhere in the SW
Gulf. Buoy 42055 in the SW Gulf near 22N94W is currently
reporting combined wave heights of 12 ft. Wave heights are
forecast to peak to about 16 ft in this part of the Gulf tonight.
The gale-force winds are forecast to diminish to fresh speeds
late tonight and moderate speeds on Mon. The wave heights will
lower to 9 ft in N to NE swell on Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 05N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N25W and to 03N35W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ
between 27W-35W and within 30-60 nm either side of the trough
between 19WE-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys southwestward to the
western Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure anchored by a 1039 mb
over northern Mexico near 28N101W, is building in over the area.
Outside the gale-force winds that are affecting a part of the SW
Gulf, the latest scatterometer data shows strong to near gale
force NW to N winds elsewhere in the SW Gulf, and also in the
central Gulf area and in the western S of about 28N. Wave
heights, outside the gale wind area, are in the 9-14 ft range in
the eastern Bay of Campeche and 7-11 ft elsewhere, except for
lower wave heights of 4-6 ft in the NW Gulf and 6-9 ft E of 87W.

Broken to overcast mainly low clouds with possible areas of light
rain and isolated showers are over the SW Gulf S of 21N.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the
extreme southeastern Gulf this evening. Conditions are expected
to gradually improve across the Gulf by late Mon as high pressure
builds across the basin. However, fresh NE winds may continue
through Tue over the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of
Florida,increasing to strong Tue afternoon into Wed. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over the NW
Gulf by midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning.

A cold front stretches from the Florida Keys to western Cuba and
continues southwestward to inland southern Belize. A trough
out ahead of it extends from central Cuba near 22N81W southwestward
to inland Honduras near 16N85.5W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen between the trough and the front.

Patches of low-level moisture with possible isolated showers
are noted over mainly the central and eastern Caribbean waters.

Fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Strong trade winds
cover the central Caribbean Sea, except for strong to near gale
force NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are
in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong N winds are spilling into
the far northern part of the Yucatan Channel behind the front,
with wave heights to 8 ft. The wave are near 11 ft in the SW
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Wave heights are in the
range of 7-10 feet elsewhere between 70W and 80W and 6-8 ft in
the eastern part of the basin.

As for the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to gale force
off Colombia each night through Fri night. A cold front is
crossing the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected to occur to the north of the front through Tue with
building seas. The cold front should extend from eastern Cuba to
NE Honduras by Mon night, where it is forecast to stall before
dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to funnel
through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle of the
week. Strong winds are forecast to expand in areal coverage over
the central Caribbean Sea by midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from near 31N75W southwestward to the central
Bahamas and to inland western Cuba near 23N80W. A cold front has
emerged off the northeastern Florida. It extends from a 1014 mb
low over eastern S Carolina to 31N80W and to inland Vero Beach,
Florida. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted along and within 90 nm E of the trough
N of 26N.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 29N44W to
22N45W and to 13N46W. Patches of rain with scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms are present E of the trough
from 11N to 24N.

High pressure is over the remainder of the area.

Wave heights range mostly from 7-10 feet from 04N to 28N E of
60W and lower, in the range of 4-7 ft elsewhere E of 60W. Strong
to gale-force NE winds are from 10N to 23N between 30W and 40W.
Strong NE winds are from 10N to 18N between 19W and 30W. Strong
NE to E winds are from 18N to 25N between 40W-50W. Strong to near
gale-force NE winds are from 19N to 25N between 43W-50W. Strong
NE winds are from 16N to 22N between 55W-63W. Fresh to moderate
winds are elsewhere from 65W eastward. Fresh to moderate SE to S
winds are over the areas between 65W and the Bahamas. The wave
heights range from 7-9 ft from 17N to 25N between 60W-65W. Lower
wave heights of 3-5 ft are elsewhere W of 60W.

As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front
emerging offshore Florida is accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms just east of the front. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead of and behind the front through Mon morning,
primarily to the north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front is
forecast to extend from 27N65W to eastern Cuba late Mon night.
High pressure is expected to strengthen north of the area in the
wake of the front, resulting in strong NE to E winds to expand
over the entire area Tue through Wed night, along with building
seas.

$$
Aguirre
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