[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
building central Atlantic Ocean ridge, and lower surface
pressures in Colombia and Panama, will support strong to minimal
gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia, mainly at night through the middle of next
week. The wave heights are forecast to peak to around 12 ft
Sat night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday afternoon. The cold front will
exit the southeastern Gulf late Sun afternoon. Gale force
north winds are expected behind the front, offshore of Texas and
Tampico in Mexico on Sat night, then offshore Veracruz in Mexico
on Sunday. The wave heights are forecast to build to 12 feet on
Sat night, and may reach 14 ft on Sun off Veracruz.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N/06N along 10W to 06N15W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N25W and
to 03N36W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm,
south of the trough between 07N-12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
ongoing gale warning.

A high pressure ridge associated to high pressure of 1021 mb
offshore the South Carolina coast extends southwestward to
the NE Gulf.

Broken to overcast multilayer clouds cover the Gulf from 23N to
29N between 89W-97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seem within these clouds from 23N to 28N between 89W-95W.

The latest ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate winds in
the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Wave heights
are in the 1-3 ft range, except for slightly higher heights of
2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and in the west-central
Gulf area.

As for the forecast, benign marine conditions will prevail
across the basin through Sat as high pressure remains over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. The next cold front will move into the
NW Gulf Sat afternoon bringing gale force northerly winds behind
the front offshore the Texas coast to Tampico, Mexico by Sat
night, then gale force winds will funnel south to offshore
Veracruz Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede
the frontal boundary and the front should exit the basin late Sun
afternoon. Strong north winds are forecast over most of the
remainder of the Gulf, behind the front. Conditions will
gradually improve across the Gulf by Mon night as high pressure
builds across the basin, however moderate to fresh NE winds will
continue through Tue nigh over the southeastern Gulf and the
Straits of Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
a gale warning for offshore NW Colombia.

A stationary front extends from the western Atlantic southwestward
to 27N74W, to central Bahamas and to the coast of Cuba near
22N77W, where it weakens to a trough to the southern coast of
Cuba near 21N78W and continues to northern Belize. Isolated
showers are along and near the trough.

Afternoon ASCAT data passes reveal that fresh to strong trades
are over the central part of the Caribbean and strong northeast
to east winds are over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The data
shows that strong east winds are north of 15N between 64W and
72W, and northeast to east moderate winds are over the
northwestern Caribbean. Wave heights are in the range of 6-8 ft
in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Higher wave heights of
7-10 ft are offshore Colombia, while lower wave heights are of
2-4 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

As for the forecast, fresh to strong winds continue to propagate
westward into the eastern Caribbean tonight. These conditions
will reach the central Caribbean tonight with building seas
across the area. Nightly winds will pulse to minimal gale force
off Colombia every night through the middle of next week. The
next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun
afternoon, generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through
Tue, with building seas. The cold front will extend from eastern
Cuba to the northeast section of Honduras by Mon night, where it
will stall before dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will
funnel through the Windward Passage Mon night through the middle
of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N69W southwestward to 27N74W,
to central Bahamas and to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front within 30 nm of
a line from 27N72W to 29N69W, and also over the waters between
the central Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along and just inland the coast of Cuba between
78W-81W. Mainly moderate south winds are east of the front, with
gentle northeast winds to the west of the boundary.

A surface trough curves along a position from 26N33W to 18N40W
to 11N42W and 05N40W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with
embedded areas of moderate rain and isolated showers are noted
to the east of the surface trough to near 20N.

Wave heights range from 8-11 ft north of 18N and east of 40W.
Wave heights range from 7-9 ft from 13N to 23N between 50W and
62W. Lower wave heights are in the range from 3-6 ft are
elsewhere east of 50W, and 4-6 ft to the west of 50W.

Strong to near gale-force winds cover the area from 22N to 30N
between 36W and 50W. Mostly strong winds are noted from 13N to
19N within 280 nm of the coast of Africa, from 18N to 23N between
26W and 34W and from 10N to 23N between 50W and 60W.

As for the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned stationary
boundary will weaken tonight and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong
trades are forecast for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola
tonight through Sat night. The next cold front is forecast to
move off NE Florida early on Sun, and reach from near 31N66W to
east-central Cuba near 21N78W early Mon, and from 27N65W to
eastern Cuba Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected
ahead of and behind the front, affecting most of the area through
mid-week.

$$
Aguirre
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