[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building
ridge over the central Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low
will support strong to minimal gale force winds across the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia mainly at night
through Sat night. Seas are forecast to build to 12-13 ft by Sat
night. Gale conditions are also possible Mon night and Tue night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
07N13W to 05N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is found from the equator to 06N between 20W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region with a 1020 mb high pressure located
near the western Florida panhandle. Another high pressure center of
1018 mb is analyzed near Brownsville, Texas. Patches of low level
clouds are noted across the Gulf waters, more concentrated over
the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf,
with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range
over the northern Gulf and 2-4 ft over the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the northern Gulf will support
generally benign marine conditions across the basin through Sat
morning. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by late Sat afternoon
and exit the SE Gulf Sun afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will precede the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough
seas will follow the front over most of the Gulf, except for strong
to near-gale force winds in the western Gulf. Gale force winds are
possible over the far west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico Sat night
through Sun. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf
Mon, however moderate to fresh NE winds will continue through Tue
night over the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES Section above for details on the
developing gales offshore NW Colombia.

The southern end of a stationary frontal boundary is over Camaguey,
Cuba generating locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over parts of Jamaica,
and over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Recent scatterometer data
provide observations of moderate to fresh trade winds over the
east and central Caribbean, with the exception of fresh to strong
winds near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds are seen in the lee of western Cuba. Altimeter data and buoy
observations indicate seas of 4-6 ft across much of the basin,
except seas of 7-9 ft near the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate NE winds over the northwest Caribbean
will diminish through Fri. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
over the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands will propagate
into the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Sun. The
next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean Sun,
generating fresh to strong NE winds behind it through Tue, with
building seas. The cold front will extend from the Windward Passage
to NE Honduras by Mon night, where it will stall before dissipating
Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward
Passage Mon night through the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas to
Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted just ahead of the front. Recent scatterometer data indicate
the winds shift associated with this system, with gentle NE winds
on the W side of the boundary and mainly moderate SE winds on the
E side. Higher wind speeds are seen near the convective activity.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N32W to 18N38W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are near the northern
end of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between the
trough and a 1033 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores.
This trough is the reflection of an upper-level low spinning near
26N36W. Scattered showers are related to this feature. Abundant
multilayered clouds with embedded showers are between the trough
axis and the coast of W Africa. A second trough is analyzed from
16N37W to 06N39W. Fresh to strong winds are noted east of the
Lesser Antilles with seas of 6-8 ft over this area. Another area
of fresh to locally strong NE winds is observed per satellite
derived wind data over the Atlantic roughly from 21N-28N between
41W-47W. Altimeter data indicate seas of 8-10 ft within this area
of winds.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will begin to dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trades are forecast
for the offshore waters N of Hispaniola Fri night through Sat night.
The next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun
and extend from 31N66W to east- central Cuba near 21N77W early Mon,
and from 27N65W to the Windward Passage Mon evening. Fresh to strong
winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, affecting most
of the area through mid-week.

$$
GR
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