[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a building
ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over NW
Colombia and Panama will tighten, supporting gale force winds in
offshore NW Colombia starting tonight. Additional gales may pulse
each night Fri night and Sat night. Seas in and near the region
of gales will peak near 13 ft. Winds will decrease below gale by
Sunday, but the rough seas will persist into early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 07N13W to 06N17W to 06N23W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is found within 60 nm N and 150 nm S
of the ITCZ between 23W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N89W dominates the Gulf
of Mexico, allowing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Gentle to
moderate winds are over the SW Gulf, with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the northern Gulf
and 2-3 ft over the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure over the northern
Gulf will continue to support generally mild marine conditions
across the basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the NW
Gulf by late Sat afternoon and exit the SE Gulf Sun morning.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will
follow the front over most of the Gulf. Gale force winds are
possible over the far west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico Sat
night into Sun. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf
Mon, however moderate to fresh NE winds over the eastern and SW
gulf in the wake of the front will continue through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES Section above for details on the
developing gales offshore NW Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front extends from central Cuba to near
the Honduras/Nicaragua border. Gentle to moderate winds are found
west of the stationary front. Fresh to strong winds prevail over
the south central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the far western Caribbean, 1-3 ft over the
waters south of Cuba as well as the Windward passage, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight.
Winds west of the front will decrease through Fri. Winds will
pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia tonight through Sun,
then resume again Tue night. The next front is expected to enter
the basin Sun, generating fresh to strong NE winds in the NW
Caribbean and building seas. The front will extend from 21N72W
SW to NE Honduras by Mon night where it will stall before
dissipating Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds will funnel through the
Windward Passage Mon night through the middle to the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the central Bahamas to
central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
within 120 nm east of the boundary north of 25N. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted west of the front, as well as east of
the front to 65W. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the open
waters west of 65W, and 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N30W to 18N38W.
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-11 ft prevail within 480 nm
west of the trough. A second trough is noted from 16N35W to
06N38W. Scattered moderate convection is within 480 nm east of
these features. Fresh to strong winds are also noted east of the
windward Islands with seas of 6-8 ft over this area. Elsewhere,
winds are in the gentle to moderate range with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will begin to
dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trades are forecast for the
offshore waters N of Hispaniola Sat through Sun. The next cold
front is forecast to move off NE Florida early on Sun and extend
from 29N65W to the eastern tip of Cuba by Mon afternoon. Fresh to
strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front affecting
most of the area through mid-week.

$$
AL
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