[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends
from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 07N12W
to 05N20W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between
the west coast of Africa and 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to build across the western and northern
Gulf behind a stationary front that stretches from the Florida
Straits to western Cuba. Light to gentle breezes surround the
center of the high in the northern and western Gulf, while
moderate to fresh northerly winds cover the remainder of the
basin south of 25N and east of 92W. Seas are mainly 1 to 3 ft
north of 25N and 4 to 6 ft south of 25N.

For the forecast, the stationary front will transition back to a
cold front later today and move east of the area. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds behind the front affecting the SE gulf
waters will diminish by Thu morning. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the northwest Gulf by Sat followed by fresh to
strong northerly winds rapidly increasing to near gale to gale
force winds over eastern Mexico adjacent waters Sat night into
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh winds are noted behind the boundary, contained
mostly within the Yucatan Channel and 90 nm east of the Yucatan
Peninsula, which is allowing for seas up to 5 ft. East of the
boundary in the NW Caribbean, light to gentle winds are noted
with 1 to 3 ft seas. A weak surface trough found near the Cayman
Islands is producing some isolated showers. The rest of the
basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. An earlier
scatterometer satellite pass indicated that moderate to fresh
trades were in the central and eastern Caribbean.  Seas in the
region are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW
Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu, increasing to locally strong
speeds Thu night into Sun. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
for the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force Fri night
and Sat night. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will
transition back to a cold front later today and then stall from
eastern Cuba to southern Nicaragua adjacent waters. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds west of the front will diminish on Fri
morning as the front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 1016 mb low pressure near 32N75W
to western Cuba. Regional radar notes scattered showers within
90 nm of the frontal boundary and a satellite scatterometer pass
found fresh NW winds behind the boundary. A 1023 mb high
centered near 32N54W extends a ridge across the remainder of the
western Atlantic, allowing for moderate to fresh return flow
west of 50W.  Seas in this region range from 4 to 6 ft.

Farther east, a weak 1012 mb low pressure system is located near
26N32W along a surface trough extending from 29N29W to 18N37W.
Scattered showers are noted in the eastern quadrant of the low
pressure. Scatterometer data indicates that fresh to locally
strong NE winds are occurring N of 20N and between the low
pressure and 50W. Seas in the region are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will
transition to a cold front later today and then stall again on
Thu morning from 31N69W to eastern Cuba before dissipating Thu
night into Fri. Moderate to fresh winds west and east of the
front will affect most of the area within this period. Fresh to
strong winds are forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri
night through Sun. The next cold front is forecast to move off
NE Florida on Sun morning.

$$
Mora
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