[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W
to 05N24W to 04N35W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed on satellite imagery from 02N to 07N and between 16W and
33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Florida to the NE tip of
the Yucatan peninsula. Isolated showers are noted near the
frontal boundary. The upper level trough over the SE United
States is also enhancing the development of isolated showers
across the E Gulf, affecting central and southern Florida, and
producing a large area of cloudiness across the SE Gulf and E Bay
of Campeche. Meanwhile, a strong 1024 mb high pressure dominates
the northern and western Gulf, allowing a dry continental airmass to
filter in and welcoming tranquil weather conditions. Surface
observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass show that
fresh to strong NE-N winds are affecting the waters from SW
Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Seas in this region are 5-10 ft,
with the highest seas occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will persist through
Thu. Winds and seas are diminishing across the Gulf as high
pressure settles over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, the next
cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf by Sat. Gale
conditions are possible behind the front Sat night and Sun over
the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from southern Florida to the NE tip of
the Yucatan peninsula, producing some isolated showers over the
Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Sea. A weak surface trough is
found near the Cayman Islands but no significant convection is
associated with this feature. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicate that moderate to fresh trades are found in the
central and eastern Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel. Seas in the
region are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW
Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean through mid week pulsing to strong off Colombia mainly
at night. A weak front will remain nearly stationary over the NW
Caribbean trough Fri while weakening. The aerial extent of the
fresh to strong trades will begin to increase on Fri, covering
most of the east and central Caribbean late Fri through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a weak low pressure centered
between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda to southern Florida, entering
the tropical Atlantic near 31N74W. Scattered showers are seen
between the frontal boundary the coast of Florida. Nearby, a weak
surface trough extends from 30N72W to 26N75W and a few weak
showers are occurring within 60 nm to the east of the system.
Recent scatterometer satellite data depict fresh to locally strong
winds within 120 nm of the frontal boundary and surface trough.
Seas in the described area are 3-6 ft.

A weak 1011 mb low pressure system is located near 25N34W and a
surface trough extends from the center to near 15N41W. Scattered
showers are noted in the eastern quadrant of the low pressure.
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to locally strong
NE winds are occurring N of 22N and between the low pressure and
50W. Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned will start to
move eastward on Wed, as a weak low pressure develops along the
frontal boundary north of the northern Bahamas. The front will
stall again, from 31N68W to the central Bahamas late Thu into Fri,
before lifting north of the area as a warm front on Sat. The next
cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida on Sun.

$$
DELGADO
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