[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060919
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will form over the
northern Gulf late tonight into early Mon, between high pressure
west of the area and low pressure moving from the east coast of
Florida toward the Carolina coast. The gradient will be tight
enough to support near-gale to gale force winds Mon night into
Tue over the western Gulf off the coast of Mexico, from Tampico to
Veracruz. Seas may build as high as 16 ft off Veracruz by Tue
morning. Winds and seas will subside through mid week as the low
pressure lifts farther to the north and high pressure builds over
the area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a modest monsoon trough exits the coast of
Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W to 11N20W with no significant weather
nearby. Further south, an ITCZ extends from 03N11W through 03N25W
to the coast of Brazil near EQ48W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from the Equator to 04N between 10W and 25W, and from 01S
to 03N between 38W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches from near Key West, Florida to
Cozumel, Mexico. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer
satellite passes indicate mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds
across the southern Gulf, south of 22N. Altimeter satellite passes
over the past several hours confirm seas are still 8 to 11 ft
south of 22N west of 85W in lingering northerly swell, with the
highest seas in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf. A dry
airmass has settled in over the basin north of the front, and no
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted.

For the forecast, will dissipate through late today, and the fresh
winds and rough seas over the south-central and southeast Gulf
will diminish today as high pressure builds over the region.
Another cold front will develop over the northern Gulf late today
or tonight and move across the basin through Tue, bringing another
round of winds to gale force to the west-central and southwest
Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the
basin mid week as high pressure again builds over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergent flow aloft related an upper low centered over Puerto
Rico is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. There is ample low
level moisture still in place across the islands, related to an
earlier frontal boundary and then later a shear line extending
over the region. Winds have largely diminished over this area, and
gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted, except for a small
area of fresh NE winds off the northeast coast of the Dominican
Republic. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data show NE
swell to 8 ft is still moving into Atlantic passages of the
northeast Caribbean. Farther west, recent ship observations
confirmed fresh to strong NE winds are still active through the
Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds are pulsing off the
southern coast of Hispaniola near Cabo Beata, and off Colombia
between Barranquilla and Cartagena. Ship observations are also
indicating fresh NE winds near a stationary front in the Yucatan
Channel, where a few showers and thunderstorms are active. Seas
are 7 to 8 ft off Colombia, 6 to 7 ft in the Windward Passage and
near Cabo Beata, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft in the
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue
to support pulses of fresh to strong winds near the coast of
Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and in the Windward passage through
tonight. The large NE swell dominating the Atlantic waters of the
Leeward Islands will gradually diminish through tonight. Looking
ahead, a weak cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late
Tue then stall over the far northwest Caribbean Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A front extending from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys is
becoming stationary. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass from
0130 UTC indicated fresh to locally strong NE winds north of the
front. Regional buoy observations also hint that seas are 8 to 10
ft north of the front. 1021 mb high pressure is centered east of
the front near 29N66W. Farther east, a broad deep-layer low is
centered near 28.5N46W, with an estimated pressure of 1014 mb. A
scatterometer pass from near 01 UTC showed fresh to strong SE
winds on the northeast quadrant of this low, between the low
center and high pressure northeast of the Azores. A band of
moderate to fresh NE winds persists between the low pressure and
the 1021 mb high to the west, with 7 to 8 ft seas reaching as far
as the northeast Caribbean in NE swell. Farther east, fresh to
strong NE winds are evident north of the Canary Island, with 8 to
10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are
noted south of 15N over the deep tropics.

For the forecast west of 65W, weak low pressure will form along
the front off east central Florida later today, then lift
northward and drag the western portion of the front north of the
area Mon. Another cold front will follow off the northeast Florida
coast late Mon, then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas through mid week.

$$
Christensen
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