[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a modest monsoon trough exits the coast of
Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W to 10N20W with no significant weather
nearby. Further S, an ITCZ extends from 03N13W through 02N30W to
the coast of Brazil near EQ46W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from the Equator to 05N between 10W and the Brazilian
coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward across S Florida to near Key
West at 24N82W, then continues as a stationary front across the
Yucatan Channel to the E coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 80
nm SE of this boundary. Fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas
at 8 to 11 ft are present over the Bay of Campeche and S central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are
found across the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and
Straits of Florida. A surface ridge reaching southward from a
1032 mb high near Corpus Christi, Texas across the Bay of
Campeche into S Mexico. This feature is supporting gentle to
moderate winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft over the N half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through
late Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the S central
and SE Gulf will diminish Sun as high pressure builds over the
region. Looking ahead, another cold front will develop over the
N Gulf late Sun and move across the basin through Tue, bringing
another round of gale-force winds to the W central and SW Gulf
Mon night and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin
midweek as high pressure again builds over the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Interaction between the western end of an old shearline and a mid
to upper-level low near 16N67W is triggering scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic, Puerto
Rico and the Virgin and Leeward Islands. A surface trough is
producing scattered showers over the NW basin, including the Gulf
of Honduras. A 1023 mb high N of the Greater Antilles continue to
support NE to ENE trade winds for the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to
locally strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft persist over the S
central basin, N of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades
with seas at 5 to 6 ft are found for the N central basin. Gentle
to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of
the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Gulf of Mexico section above for
weather and marine conditions near the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the 1023 mb high will support pulses of fresh
to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, N of Hispaniola, and
in the Windward passage through Sun night. Large NE swell
dominating the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands will
gradually diminish through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold
front will move into the Yucatan Channel late Tue then stall over
the far NW Caribbean Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N69W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Cloudiness and scattered
showers are evident near and NW of the front to beyond 31N. Over
the central Atlantic, a robust mid to upper-level low near 28N46W
is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms near a
dissipating frontal boundary associated with a 1014 mb surface
low near 28N46W, N of 21N between 36W and 48W. A 1018 mb low near
29N23W and its related surface trough is causing scattered showers
near the Canary Islands N of 27N between the West Sahara/Morocco
coast and 25W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present NW of the cold
front offshore from Florida and Georgia to beyond 31N. Farther E,
despite the presence of gentle to moderate winds, large NW swell
is sustaining 7 to 9-ft seas N of 15N between 50W and the
Lessward Islands/Bahamas. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE
to SE winds are present near the 1014 mb low N of 24N between 42W
and 50W, and also the 1018 mb low N of 29N between the African
coast and 26W. Seas range from 6 to 9 ft in the first area, and 4
to 7 ft in the second area. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades
with seas at 6 to 7 ft are found from the Equator to 12N between
33W and 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will begin to stall
through early Sun. Weak low pressure will form along the front off
E central Florida Sun, then lift northward and drag the western
portion of the front N of the area Mon. Another cold front will
follow off the NE Florida coast late Mon, then stall and
dissipate from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas through mid week.

$$

Chan
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