[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010941
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W
to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 01N33W to 01N48W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the
ITCZ west of 22W and extending 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ
west of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak low pressure has formed off the Texas coast near 28N94W
This system is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
NW gulf and along the Texas gulf coast. This system is generating
a strong breeze and rough seas up to 10 ft. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a fresh to strong southeasterly breeze and
moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE return flow will continue
over the western Gulf with building seas due to a weak surface low
pressure that formed along the coast of Texas. Thereafter, fresh
to occasionally strong SE to S winds will spread across much of
the Gulf through mid-week as the high pressure moves NE of the
basin. The next cold front is expected to push off the Texas coast
on Thu bringing another round of strong to gale force northerly
winds and building seas across the western Gulf Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure near Florida is maintaining a tight pressure
gradient between the high and the low pressure over Colombia.
This is generating strong NE winds extending from the Windward
Passage to Jamaica and north of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong
winds are also noted south of Cuba. Elsewhere, mainly moderate
to fresh trades prevail. Seas are 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean
and 2-4 ft in the eastern basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across
the Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night,
through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in
the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Similar winds are expected in
the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh
to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu night.
Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure has entered the subtropical western
Atlantic. Buoys are now reporting a light to gentle breeze and
slight seas north of West Palm Beach. South of 27N, this same
feature is generating a moderate to fresh easterly breeze
impacting the Florida Straits and Old Bahama Channel. A cold
front extends from a weak area of low pressure near 30N56W to
20N62W. Seas ranged between 8 to 10 ft behind the front.
Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is noted
along the front. Farther east, a 1015 mb cut-off low pressure
near 27N33W is generating scattered moderate convection extending
roughly 210 nm in the N and E quadrant. Elsewhere in the central
and eastern Atlantic, ridging from the Azores high dominates the
pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE.
Moderate seas in the 4 to 8 ft range prevail across the region.

For the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh winds will remain
over the southern Bahamas and the Windward Passage tonight through
the end of the week over the region. Large seas in the wake of
the front will gradually subside E of the Bahamas by tonight.
Trade winds will increase S of 25N Wed as the pressure gradient
increases. Looking ahead, a front over the central Atlantic may
push fresh to strong E winds over the waters east of 73W Thu into
Fri. Seas will build NE of the Bahamas Wed night into Fri, in
accordance with the increasing winds with a new approaching swell
from the N to NE Thu through the upcoming weekend.

$$ Torres
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