[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 250242
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021

Teresa's cloud pattern is not well organized, even for a
subtropical cyclone.  The main convective band is rather ragged in
appearance, and situated 100 n mi or more to the east and northeast
of the exposed low-level center.  The current intensity estimate,
40 kt, is in general agreement with the latest subtropical
satellite classification from TAFB, but given the disheveled
appearance of the system, this may be generous.

Teresa has recently been moving more westward than northward, on
the northern side of a mid-level cyclonic circulation, and the
current motion estimate is an uncertain 300/9 kt.  During the
next day or so, the cyclone is likely to turn northward and
northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough that will
be moving over the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada.  The official forecast is a little faster than the previous
one, but along the same general trajectory.  The HCCA model
consensus is somewhat faster than the NHC prediction.

The cyclone has been situated under an upper-level low which has
kept the vertical shear fairly low thus far.  However, as this low
moves away from the area, Teresa will begin to experience
increasing west-southwesterly shear, and no strengthening is
expected.  In 48 hours or so, based on the global models, the storm
is forecast to become absorbed by the aforementioned trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 34.3N  65.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 35.2N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 36.2N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 37.8N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net