[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 231753
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Sam, located about 1700 miles east-southeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located a little more than 600 miles west-northwest of
the westernmost Azores.  While showers and thunderstorms remain
limited near the low, only a small increase in this activity could
result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone while
it moves generally southward over marginally warmer waters during
the next day or so.  Strong upper-level winds are expected to
develop over the system beginning tomorrow, which should then limit
further development.  Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A surface trough of low pressure has developed in association with a
large area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda. This feature is interacting with an
upper-level trough, and some tropical or subtropical development
could occur in the next day or two as this feature moves generally
north-northwestward. Strong upper-level winds should prohibit
further development by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far east
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Sam are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin
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