[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221954 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 22 2021

Corrected the Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected

The center of Tropical Depression PETER, at 22/1500 UTC, is near
21.6N 66.9W. Peter is moving toward the NNW, or 330 degrees, 06
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Expect the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters is from
60 nm to 260 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere, from 60 nm
to 660 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Peter NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression ROSE, at 22/1500 UTC, is near
23.6N 39.2W. Rose is moving toward the northwest, or 305
degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with
gusts to 40 knots. Expect sea heights to 12 feet within 60 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong in one cluster is from 60 nm to 120 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
in small clusters is from 20N to 22N between 43W and 44W, about
320 nm from the center in the SW quadrant. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website-https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Rose NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning: An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along
31W/32W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A
1009 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near
10N. The precipitation pattern  continues to become better
organized. The environmental conditions are expected to remain
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
expected to form within a day or two, while the system moves
westward 10 to 15 mph, through the eastern and central sections
of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, are forecast to start in
24 hours or so, from 10N to 16N between 35W and 40W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 120 nm to
245 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. This system has a high
chance of formation through the next 5 days. Please, refer to
the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

No other tropical waves are in the surface map analysis at this
moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N23W, to the 1009 mb low pressure center that
is along the 31W/32W tropical wave. The ITCZ is along 06N34W,
05N40W, 07N50W, and 10N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong covers the waters that are from the
Equator to the monsoon trough, from 33W eastward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the NW Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 24N, and then inland to
27N107W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is along the front and to the northwest of the front, and
within 250 nm to the east of the front.

A surface trough passes through the southern border areas of
Alabama and Georgia, into the Florida Big Bend, to 27N83W and
23N84W, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas from the
Bahamas to Florida and parts of the easternmost Gulf of Mexico,
from Cuba northward between 76W in the Atlantic Ocean and the
27N83W 23N84W surface trough.

Fresh to strong NW winds are following the front. Fresh NE
winds, and sea heights that were ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet,
were off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to
gentle breezes are elsewhere. Sea heights ranging from 1 foot to
3 feet cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front currently reaching from southeastern Louisiana to
inland Mexico near La Pesca
will continue to move southeastward through Thu, stall from
roughly Fort Myers, Florida
to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 18N95W Fri, then dissipate
on Sat. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front in the northwest and north central
Gulf into tonight. Fresh to strong
winds will funnel along the coast of Veracruz on Thu, with seas
building to 8 feet. Looking ahead, the winds and the seas will
diminish across the basin on Sat and Sun, as high pressure
builds across the northern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough extends from a Bermuda
upper level cyclonic circulation center, through the central
Bahamas, across SE Cuba, to E Honduras/NE Nicaragua.
This feature was in more or less the same location 24 hours ago.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
to the west of the line that runs the Mona Passage to the
central part of the east coast of Nicaragua.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon
trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond
southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 13N
southward between 72W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the coastal plains and coastal waters from
10N to 12N from 82W westward.

Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to
4 feet, prevail across
much of the area. The sea heights in the Mona Passage will be
higher, from 4 feet to 6 feet,
due to swell with Tropical Depression Peter.

Tropical Depression Peter near 21.6N 66.9W, or about
190 nm north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, 1008 mb at 11 AM
EDT is moving NNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts
40 kt.Peter will move to near 22.3N 67.2W this evening, then
weaken to a remnant low as it moves farther to the north of the
area. As this occurs, trade winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea will diminish through Thu night. Fresh trade winds will
return to the south central Caribbean Sea by late Sun as high
pressure builds north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SPECIAL FEATURES section gives more specific information
about: Tropical Depression Peter,  Tropical Depression Rose, and
a low pressure center/tropical wave system with a high chance of
development during the next 48 hours.

A cold front passes through 31N43W to 27N56W. A stationary front
continues from 27N56W, 27N70W, beyond 31N78W. A NE-to-SW
oriented upper level trough extends from a Bermuda upper level
cyclonic circulation center, through the central Bahamas, across
SE Cuba, to E Honduras/NE Nicaragua. This feature was in more or
less the same location 24 hours ago. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is along and to the north
of the frontal boundary. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the areas from the Bahamas to Florida and parts of
the easternmost Gulf of Mexico, from Cuba northward between 76W
in the Atlantic Ocean and a Gulf of Mexico 31N85W 27N83W 23N84W
surface trough.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. Marine
and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation,
by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo-
France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights ranging from 5 feet to
8 feet, are from the frontal boundary northward. Fresh to strong
NE winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, are off northwest
Africa. Generally moderate trade winds, and sea heights ranging
from 4 feet to 6 feet, are elsewhere, away from the tropical
depressions.

Tropical Depression Peter near 21.6N 66.9W 1008 mb at
11 AM EDT moving NNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts
40 kt. Peter will move to 22.3N 67.2W this evening, become a
remnant low near 23.3N 67.1W early Thu morning, reach to
near 24.2N 66.7W Thu evening and continue northward to
near 25.1N 66.3W Fri morning, to near 26.3N 65.6W Fri evening,
and dissipate Sat morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will move off
the northeast Florida coast tonight, continue to the southeast
Thu, stall from 31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by late Fri,
then dissipate through late Sat.

$$
mt/Aguirre
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