[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 211451
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

The center of Rose remains exposed this morning on satellite
imagery, located about a degree west of a small area of deep
convection, with a smaller low-level swirl rotating around the
larger mean circulation.  A pair of recent scatterometer passes
indicated winds of only 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is
reduced to 35 kt on this advisory.

The storm's environment is no bed of roses during the next several
days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear,
plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters.  Almost
all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression
this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous
one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile
environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to
be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak
remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast.

Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest this morning at about 12
kt.  The storm should gradually turn northward during the next
couple of days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, a mid-latitude trough is anticipated to steer Rose
faster to the northeast or east-northeast by the weekend, which
should cause the weak tropical cyclone to open up into a trough
towards the end of the forecast.  While there are some speed
differences among the models, the latest guidance suite is similar
to the last forecast, so no significant changes were made to the NHC
track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 21.6N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 22.8N  37.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 24.1N  38.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 25.4N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 26.9N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 28.3N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 29.4N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z 31.5N  34.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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