[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Peter is centered near 19.8N 62.8W at 21/0300 UTC
or 95 nm N of the northern Leeward Islands, and moving WNW at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are
peaking at 12 to 14 ft near and just N of the center. An area of
strong to gale winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are found farther NE
of the center from 18N to 23N between 58W and 61W. Numerous to
isolated strong convection is seen up to 190 nm in a semicircle E
of the center. Peter will continue to move WNW with little change
in speed through Tuesday night, passing well N of Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands early Tuesday evening; then follow by a
gradual turn to the N with decreasing speed on Wed. Peter is
forecast to start a slow weakening trend late Tuesday morning.
Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible across the Greater Antilles except Jamaica and Cuba
through Tuesday; increasing the potential for urban and small
stream flooding. Swells generated by Peter will also impact these
same locations through Tues before reaching the Bahamas by
midweek, producing high surf and strong rip currents. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details. Marine interests in the area can read the latest NHC
Offshore Waters Forecasts at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php

Tropical Storm Rose is centered near 18.9N 35.4W at 21/0300 UTC
or 675 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving NW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking at 11 to
12 ft near and just NE of the center. An area of strong to gale
winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are found farther E and SE of the
center from 17N to 20N between 32W and 34W. Scattered moderate
convection is found near the center from 16N to 20N between 33W
and 36W. Rose is expected to continue on a NW track with a
decrease in forward speed through Wed, then turn toward NNW on
Thu. No significant change in strength is anticipated through
Tuesday, with weakening likely beginning Tue night. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details. For sea conditions near this system, please read the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to
show some signs of organization, although recent satellite wind data
indicate that the system lacks a surface circulation. Upper-level
winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next
48 hours. For more information, refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from the southernmost Cabo
Verde Islands southward through a 1010 mb low near 09N24W, and
moving W near 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 06N to 14N between 25W and 29W. Refer to the Special Features
section above for formation potential of this system.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean at the Senegal coast
near 14N17W through the above mentioned 1010 mb low pressure
to 09N34W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N34W to 05N48W. Other
than the convection near the tropical wave/low, no significant
convection is evident near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest 1015 mb high over the E Gulf near 26N86W is dominating
the entire area with light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the
E and central Gulf of Mexico through Tue. This pattern will
support continued gentle to moderate winds and mostly slight seas
across the Gulf. An early season cold front is expected to enter
the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the NE Gulf to central Bay of
Campeche by late Thu before stalling, supporting increased winds
and seas over the NW and N central Gulf Tue night through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Peter which is forecast to track well north of
the NE Caribbean.

Aided by an upper-level low near Jamaica at 18N78W, convergent
trades are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the N central basin, including SE Cuba and Hispaniola.
Moderate trades and seas near 4 ft exit across the S central
basin, while gentle trades and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Peter is northeast of the Leeward
Islands near 19.8N 62.8W 1008 mb at 21/0300 UTC, and moving WNW
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Peter will continue to move northward through mid week, then
weaken to a tropical depression early Thu before continuing toward
Bermuda through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, trade
winds over the S central Caribbean will diminish through Thu
night. Look for associated showers and thunderstorms to affect the
NE Caribbean and adjacent waters through Tue morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Peter located N of the northern Leeward Islands
and Tropical Storm Rose situated WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands.
In addition, the potential of tropical cyclone formation for a
tropical wave/low pressure near the Cabo Verde Islands is also
available.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. The ash plume is
expected to remain below 8,000 ft in the vicinity of the volcano
while drifting SW, causing a reduction in visibility. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation by
reading Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/

A cold front extends west-southwestward, entering the forecast
area near 31N53W to SSE of Bermuda at 29N63W, then continues
west-northwestward as a stationary front to the Georgia-N Florida
coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and
S of this frontal boundary N of 25N between 61W and the Florida-
Georgia coast, including the NW Bahamas. Convergent trades are
causing similar conditions over the SE Bahamas. A robust upper-
level trough well W of the Canary Islands near 28N35W is producing
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 28N
between 26W and 36W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the influence of Tropical Storms Peter and Rose, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are
present N of 20N between 40W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Mostly
moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found N of
15N between the NW African coast and 40W. Light to gentle winds
and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, Tropical Storm Peter near 19.8N
62.8W 1008 mb at 21/0300 UTC is moving WNW at 10 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peter will move to
20.4N 64.2W Tue morning, and 21.3N 66.0W Tue evening. Peter will
continue northward reaching 22.3N 67.2W Wed morning, 23.2N 67.7W
Wed evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N 67.7W Thu
morning, then move to 25.1N 67.2W by Thu evening. Peter will
continue to move northward toward Bermuda through the rest of the
week. Elsewhere west of 70W, gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will persist over open waters through the early
part of the week, with swell to 8 ft associated with Peter
reaching the waters E of 72W by early Wed.

$$

Chan
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