[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 191455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

...DISHEVELED PETER HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 56.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.5 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected
to occur by Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Peter
is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and
Tuesday.

Based on data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today. Some
slight weakening is expected tonight into Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
primarily northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data
is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The outer bands south of the tropical storm could produce
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
possible across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including
the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late today through
Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream
flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to
reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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