[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 162316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located near the central coast of
Louisiana.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and somewhat limited
in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could still form over the weekend.  This system is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the
Outer Banks of North Carolina have changed little in organization
this evening and the system still lacks a well-defined center.
However, environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves northward to
north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts.
Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts through this
weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave just offshore
of the west coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be only marginally conducive, and development, if any, of this
system should be slow to occur over the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far
eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto
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