[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 122358
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142021
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...
...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West.  Nicholas
has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over
the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12
mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday.
A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late
Monday or Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of
Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern
Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast
of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the
northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL:  Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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