[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 111134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the Labrador Sea.

A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they
are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next
day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or
Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward
near the coast of northeastern Mexico.  Further development will be
possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water,
and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the
far eastern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo
Verde Islands later today and tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system will be
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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