[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 082102
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on
geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515
UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in
the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation.
The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small
closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these
stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become
evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally
nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These
Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of
hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably
confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last
hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind
of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has
tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated
on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt.

The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to
the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement
that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the
east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the
influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the
eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of
Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12
hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States
by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the
cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes
vertically shallow.

Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land
interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24
hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off
the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase
above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from
remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR
brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in
the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a
trough shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 29.0N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 30.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1800Z 31.3N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0600Z 32.3N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 32.9N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 33.4N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z 33.3N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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