[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of major Hurricane LARRY, at 08/0300 UTC, is near
25.8N 56.8W. LARRY is moving toward the northwest, or 325
degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 967
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to
120 knots. LARRY is about 572 nm/1060 km to the SE of Bermuda.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm of
the center in the N semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in
the S semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N93W, about
220 nm to the NW of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. A
surface trough is along 93W/95W, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico to SW Louisiana. Precipitation: numerous strong
is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico between 94W
and 96W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in two
clusters: within a 45 nm radius of 27N84W, and from 23N to 26N
between 87W and 89W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is elsewhere in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 91W
eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. This weather system is expected
to move northeastward, into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later
today. It is possible that upper level winds may become slightly
more favorable, in order to support some tropical or subtropical
development, as the system nears the northern Gulf coast tonight
or early on Thursday. The disturbance then is expected to cross
the southeastern United States. Some additional development will
be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States
coast late this week. Areas of heavy rainfall will be possible in
parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia through
Thursday, with localized flooding possible. The formation chance
through 48 hours is medium. Please, read the Tropical Weather
Outlook, at the following web address:
nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 08N to 13N between 19W and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 13N between 32W and
43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 160 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 07N to 09N.

A tropical wave is in Central America, along 89W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in Guatemala and
Mexico, within 220 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 14N
to 19N. Isolated moderate is in parts of Belize, and in parts of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N27W, and to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N36W to 06N40W, and 03N46W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 04N to 09N between 44W and 55W.
The rest of the nearby precipitation is accompanying the tropical
waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N93W, about
220 nm to the NW of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. A
surface trough is along 93W/95W, from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico to SW Louisiana. Precipitation: numerous strong
is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico between 94W
and 96W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in two
clusters: within a 45 nm radius of 27N84W, and from 23N to 26N
between 87W and 89W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is elsewhere in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 91W
eastward in the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES
section, for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase slowly in the
south central Gulf of Mexico, in association with a surface
trough and an upper level disturbance. This trough is expected to
move slowly NE into the central and NE Gulf during the next
couple of days. Upper level winds are only somewhat conducive for
development currently, but could become more favorable late Wed,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system
nears the northern Gulf coast Wed night or Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 14N between 72W and 85W
in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N southward
from 70W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers span the rest of the Caribbean Sea,
in areas of broken low to middle level clouds, and in the trade
wind flow.

Swells generated by major Hurricane Larry will continue to
propagate across the Atlantic waters of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, through Wednesday night into Thursday.
The seas will subside gradually from E to W. Mainly moderate
trade winds will persist, pulsing to fresh winds, off Colombia
and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Larry information is given in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section.

A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N67W, through 30N68W, to 29N70W and 29N72W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N
northward between 67W and 73W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 40W eastward, to the east of Hurricane
LARRY.

Major Hurricane Larry is well to the east of the area, and will
continue moving northward, away from the area. Large swells
generated by Larry will continue to propagate across the forecast
waters, with 8 feet or greater seas reaching 70W on Wednesday,
and 75W on Thursday. It is possible that low pressure may emerge
off the SE U.S. coast late this week.

$$
mt/sk
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