[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Sep 07 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane LARRY, at 07/0300 UTC, is near 23.1N
54.4W. LARRY is moving toward the northwest, or 325 degrees, 09
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots. LARRY
is about 900 nm to the SE of Bermuda. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant,
and within 200 nm of the center everywhere else. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 07N to 17N between 23W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any
nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough/ITCZ
precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This tropical wave is
passing through Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is in Central America, within 260 nm to the west of the
tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, along 94W/95W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to
15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is in Mexico, within 180 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 15N to 23N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 16N25W, and to 08N31W and 07N35W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N35W to 04N46W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is in the coastal plains and
in the coastal waters of Guinea. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 04N to 08N between 30W and 46W. Isolated
moderate is from 10N to 17N between 23W and 34W, and from 10N
southward between 46W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 23N92W, to a 1011 mb low pressure
center that is near 22N92.5W, to 21N93W,  to the coast of Mexico
near 18.5N93W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is within 120 nm to the north of the northern
parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 18N to 22N between 87W and 91W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 22N southward from the surface trough
westward. The weather system is forecast to move slowly,
northward or northeastward, through the central and then
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is likely to reach the northern
Gulf coast in a few days. The upper level winds are expected to
become marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation in a
couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cross the
southeastern United States beginning midweek. Some development
will be possible, once it emerges into the Atlantic Ocean late
this week.

A surface trough is along 30N85W to 26N86W to 23N87W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 90W eastward.

An outflow boundary is within 125 nm to the south of the U.S.A.
Gulf coast, from SE Louisiana to the middle Texas Gulf coast.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N northward from 90W
westward.

Weak low pressure N of the Yucatan Peninsula will move slowly N
or NE, through the central and then NE Gulf of Mexico, likely
reaching the northern Gulf coast in a few days. Upper level winds
are currently unfavorable for development. It is likely for the
upper level winds to become
somewhat conduce for tropical cyclone formation in a couple of
days. High pressure will bring
light to gentle winds and slight seas through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas of Jamaica,
Cuba, and Hispaniola. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the area that is from 15N northward from 71W
eastward.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon
trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, beyond southern Nicaragua,
and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 15N southward from 70W westward.

Major Hurricane Larry will remain well to the northeast of the
Leeward Islands tonight, then move more to the north of the area
through mid week. Associated moderate to large swell will
continue to move into the region through mid week. Mainly
moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing to
fresh winds, off Colombia, mainly at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Larry information is given in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N66W. A
surface trough is along 31N68W 28N71W 28N74W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 23N northward from 64W westward.

A surface trough is along 31N13W 25N26W 31N41W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 42W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 60W westward, to the west of Hurricane LARRY, and away from
the 31N68W 28N74W surface trough. A 1016 mb high pressure center
is near 24N69W.

Major Hurricane Larry near 23.1N 54.4W 956 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt.
Larry will move to 24.1N 55.5W Tue morning, 25.6N 56.8W Tue
evening, 27.3N 58.2W Wed morning, 29.2N 59.9W Wed evening, 31.6N
61.3W Thu morning, and 34.6N 61.8W Thu evening. Larry will
change little in intensity as it moves to the SE of Atlantic Canada
late Fri. Large swell generated by Larry will continue to propagate
across the eastern forecast waters, reaching 70W by mid week.

$$
mt/sk
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