[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Sep 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Larry is centered near 17.4N 47.1W at 04/2100 UTC
or 840 nm E of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is
noted within 200 nm of the center in the southern semicircle and
numerous moderate convection within 215 nm in the northern
semicircle. Seas are up to 42 ft with 12 ft seas extending within
300 nm in the northern semicircle and 240 nm in the southern
semicircle. Larry is expected have a somewhat slower west-
northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next day
or so, followed by some intensity fluctuations. However, Larry is
expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early
part of next week. Swells generated by Larry are expected to
reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread
westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach
the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis 17W from 19N southward, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the coast
of Africa from 05N to 15N and E of 19W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 34W from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has an axis along 73W from
20N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across Hispaniola and the adjacent waters
north of the island. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm of
the wave in the Caribbean.

See the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion for
information on the tropical wave along 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N27W. The monsoon trough continues SW of Hurricane Larry near
11N47W to 09N51W. The ITCZ extends from 09N51W to the coast of
Venezuela near 11N63W. Aside from the convection associated with
Hurricane Larry and the tropical waves, isolated thunderstorms are
noted along the ITCZ from 07N to 13N between 51W to 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida near 28N83W to
a 1012 mb low near 28N87W. A weakening stationary front extends
west of the low to the southwest Louisiana coast near 30N93W. The
significant convection associated with this front is over southern
Florida. A trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W
to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted across the Bay of Campeche, S of 22N between
90W to 98W. A weak 1015 mb high is noted in the western Gulf near
27N93W. Light to gentle winds are noted across the Gulf of Mexico
with moderate winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are
1 to 3 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface trough currently over the Yucatan
Peninsula will move into the southwest Gulf through early Sun,
then move northward over the western and north-central Gulf of
Mexico through the middle of next week. Unfavorable upper level
winds should limit development through Mon, but environmental
conditions may become somewhat favorable for gradual development
through mid week. Elsewhere, a stationary front over the
northeast Gulf will gradually dissipate through Sun, while weak
high pressure dominates much of the remainder of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave
in the central Caribbean.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across
the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean from 16N to 22N and W of
81W. The monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean with
showers and isolated thunderstorms along it, S of 11N between 76W
to 83W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in central and
eastern Caribbean with seas 3 to 6 ft. Light to gentle tradewinds
in the western Caribbean and moderate to locally fresh winds are
noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in this area.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Larry near 17.4N 47.1W 958 mb
at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt
gusts 135 kt. The closest point of approach of the center of Larry
to the Leeward Islands is expected to be more than 500 nm by late
Mon as Larry moves to near 23N55W. However, associated rough seas
will move west of 55W tonight into early Sun, reaching the
Leeward Islands and Atlantic entrances Mon, then subside through
mid week as Larry moves farther north of the region. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds will persist, pulsing to fresh
winds off Colombia mainly at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Major
Hurricane Larry and the tropical waves section for more
information on the two waves in the Atlantic.

A 1012 mb low is noted NE of the northern Bahamas near 30N74W. A
stationary front extends west of the low to south of Cape
Canaveral, Florida near 28N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is N of 23N between 64W to 80W, including
thunderstorms impacting the northern Bahamas. Moderate NE winds
are behind the front with gentle to moderate SW winds ahead of it.
Seas are 3 to 6 ft. Meanwhile, an upper level low near 22N65W is
leading to scattered moderate convection north of Puerto Rico from
22N to 27N between 59W to 67W. Winds in this area are gentle to
moderate with seas to 5 ft. High pressure extends across the
central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high near
28N38W and near 30N51W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted with
seas 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, Hurricane Larry near 17.4N 47.1W 958
mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt
gusts 135 kt. Larry will move to 21.0N 52.3W Mon morning, 22.2N
54.0W Mon afternoon, 23.4N 55.6W Tue morning, and 24.7N 57.0W Tue
afternoon. Larry will change little in intensity as it continues
to move to the NW through mid week with area of tropical storm
force winds expected to remain east of 65W at least into mid week.
Rough seas in the form of large swell generated by Hurricane
Larry are expected to propagate across the waters north of the
Leeward Islands tonight and Sun, then spread west of 65W through
the early part of the week.

$$
AReinhart
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