[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane LARRY, at 02/1500 UTC, is near 13.5N
34.2W. LARRY is moving toward the west, or 280 degrees, 15 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 465 nm to
the WSW of the center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.


2. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate
that a low pressure area has formed about 300 miles east-
southeast of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, and that the
associated showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization.
Some additional development could occur during the next 12-24
hours as the low moves generally westward at about 15 mph. After
that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 12N to 14N. Satellite imagery and recent
satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure area has formed
about 300 miles to the ESE of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.
The pattern of precipitation is showing signs of organization. It
is possible that some additional development may occur during the
next 12 to 24 hours, as the low pressure center moves generally
westward 15 mph. The conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development, after the first 12 to 24 hours.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate and widely scattered strong is within 480 nm to
the east of the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave
from 12N southward to land.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This tropical wave is
weak and difficult to track. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 16N17W, to 16N20W, and to 14N26W. The monsoon trough is
interrupted by Hurricane LARRY. The monsoon trough also is along
12N39W 07N53W. Precipitation: all the precipitation also is near
Hurricane Larry, and the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the southern sections of Georgia,
Alabama, and Mississippi, and into the northern half of
Louisiana. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery to the north of the cold front. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to
the southeast and to the south of the cold front, from the
Atlantic Ocean, to the Bahamas and Florida, and in the Gulf of
Mexico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. An inland Mexico NE-to-SW oriented surface trough
reaches the coastal plains of Mexico near 19N96W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N southward from 93W
westward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A weak ridge extends from the Florida Keys to the northwest Gulf,
to the south of a weak cold front that is moving southward into
the Florida Panhandle. The front will stall over far northeast
Gulf of Mexico through Friday. This pattern will maintain light to
gentle breezes in most of the Gulf, with slight seas, except for
fresh winds expected to pulse northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula
at night through Fri. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure that
is currently located near the coast of Nicaragua could move into
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next
week, but by then strong upper level winds would likely limit
significant development.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is in NE Nicaragua. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 255 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant. It is possible that a part of the
low pressure center's circulation may move into the Gulf of
Honduras on Friday. Any development is expected to be slow to
occur. It is possible that this system may move into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and early next
week. It is likely for strong upper level winds to limit
significant development in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are
possible in parts of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula
through the weekend. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
is along 10N75W in Colombia, to the NE Nicaragua 1008 mb low
pressure center, beyond southern Guatemala. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 14N southward from 76W westward.

A ridge N of the Caribbean Sea combined with lower pressure in
northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh trade winds in
the south central Caribbean Sea through Sun. Fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through the weekend. A small area of low pressure that is in
eastern Nicaragua is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity off Cabo Gracias a Dios. The low could move over the Gulf
of Honduras on Friday where development, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur. Looking ahead, large swells generated by
Hurricane Larry are expected to reach the waters east of the
Leeward Islands Sun. This swell event is forecast to propagate
farther west likely reaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola by Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Larry information is given in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N69W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 60W westward. A surface trough is along 31N27W
27N30W 25N34W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 125 nm
on either side of the surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward between the
31N27W 25N34W surface trough and 70W. A 1025 mb high pressure
center is near 34N39W.

Fresh southwest winds off northeast Florida will shift northeast
of the area by tonight. These winds are ahead of a cold front
forecast to weaken as it moves across the northern waters W of 70W
Sat through Sun night. Looking ahead, large swells generated by
Hurricane Larry are expected to propagate across the waters east
of the Leeward on Sun, likely spreading beyond 65W Mon and Mon
night.

$$
MT/EC/MMT
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