[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Sep 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm LARRY, at 01/1500 UTC, is near 12.3N
27.6W. LARRY is moving toward the west, or 270 degrees, 19 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from 130 nm to 230 nm
of the center in the W quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center in all
quadrants. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml,
for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression Kate, at 01/1500 UTC, is near
26.8N 52.3W. KATE is moving toward the north-northwest, or 340
degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to
40 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm of the
center in the W quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere within 3000 nm of the center in the NW
semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave from 10N to 20N.

The Atlantic Ocean tropical wave that was along 53W/54W, at
01/0600 UTC, has been eliminated from the map analysis. It is
not showing up at the surface anymore.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 13N to 15N
between 72W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through interior sections of Africa and
it reaches the coastal waters of Senegal near 15N18W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough between 16W and 18W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is inland and in the coastal plains
of Africa from 09N to 13N between 12W and 17W. The monsoon trough
is interrupted by Tropical Storm LARRY. The monsoon trough also is
along 10N32W 08N46W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N between 48W and
60W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm
to the north of the monsoon trough between 34W and 38W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm to the south of the
ITCZ between 48W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ,
and within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between
32W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the U.S.A. from 100W
eastward. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is in the
Gulf of Mexico, from 26N northward, at the periphery of the upper
level CONUS cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N98W along
the coast of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within a
radius of 210 nm away from the center. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 25N between 93W and 100W
inland in Mexico.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico, that is away from the 23N98W cyclonic circulation
center.

Fresh to strong southwest to west winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico will
persist through tonight, in advance of a frontal trough. Light
and variable winds will prevail in the NE Gulf of Mexico during
the upcoming weekend. A ridge will dominate the Gulf region,
producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds through Friday.
Pulsing fresh winds are expected to the northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 13N81W, about 150 nm to the
east of the coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 13N to 16N between 76W and the
coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Some slow development of this
feature remains possible during the next couple of days if it
remains in the open water, while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of Central America. The
system will have another opportunity for gradual development in
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are possible in parts
of Central America and in the Yucatan Peninsula, later this week
and into the weekend. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook at: www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough
is along 10N75W in Colombia, beyond NW Nicaragua, and into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within
60 nm to 120 on either side of the monsoon trough.

The pressure gradient between a ridge east of Florida and lower
pressure in northern Colombia will support moderate to fresh
trade winds in the south central and northwestern Caribbean Sea
through at least Fri. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras at night through the weekend. An area of low pressure
continues to produce disorganized shower activity in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system
remains possible during the next couple of days if it remains
over open water while moving west-northwestward or northwestward
near the coast of Central America. The system will have another
opportunity for gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Heavy rains are possible across parts of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula later this week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Information that is about T.S. LARRY and T.D. KATE is given in
the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

An upper level trough is along 30N70W, to the central Bahamas, to
Honduras in Central America. A surface trough is along 26N75W
23N76W 20N78W. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the areas
that are from 20N northward from 60W westward.

The southernmost point of a cold front is 31N33W. A 1022 mb high
pressure center is near 29N27W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 31N northward between 24W and 40W. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from the
cold front eastward.

Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected just off
northeastern Florida today, in advance of a frontal trough that is
forecast to move southward to northern Florida and the
northwestern waters through Fri night. The trough will weaken as
it moves across the northern waters W of 70W Sat through Sun
night. Looking ahead: swells generated by tropical cyclone Larry
are expected to reach the waters NE and E of the Leeward Islands
on Sun, likely reaching 65W on Mon.

$$
mt/ja
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