[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Ida is centered near 36.2N 84.6W
at 01/0300 or 40 nm NW of Knoxville, Tennessee, and moving ENE at
17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 36 kt. Ida will bring
heavy rain with potential flooding to the Mid-Atlantic and parts
of the Northeast over the next couple of days. Please read the
latest WPC Public Advisory at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=IDA
and the Storm Summary Message at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html, for more
details.

Tropical Depression Kate is centered near 25.4N 51.3W at 01/0300
UTC or 785 nm NE of the N Leeward Islands and moving NNW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas are peaking at 10 to
11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N to 27N
between 50W and 53W. Little change in intensity is forecast
through Wed night, before gradually dissipating starting Thur
morning. Kate will stay on a NNW track through Thur morning, then
turn toward N through Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 12.1N 23.2W at
01/0300 UTC or 180 nm SSE of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands,
and moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Seas are peaking near 10 ft. Numerous moderate and strong
convection is seen mainly W of the center from 10N to 14N between
22W and 27W. Twelve will likely strengthen into a tropical storm
later today, and might become a hurricane on Thur. The latest
forecast track has the system staying on a WNW course through Thur
morning, then turning toward the NW starting Thur night. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 19N southward, passing
very close to Tropical Depression Twelve and moving W 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 14N to 16N between
20W and 25W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W from 20N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
found from 07N to 10N between 40W and 48W.

A weak Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward into
French Guiana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are evident from 07N to 10N between 50W and 53W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from the Dominican Republic
southward through NW Venezuela into central Colombia, and moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring over Hispaniola and NE Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the Gambia coast near 13N17W, passing
through Tropical Depression Twelve to 09N32W to 09N47W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 10N to 17N
between the African coast and 20W, and farther W from 07N to 12N
between 28W and 40W. Based on the latest analysis, there is no
ITCZ present.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge stretches eastward from the central Mexican coast
across the central Gulf to S Florida. Moderate to fresh with
locally strong SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the NE
Gulf. Light winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft are present over the SE
Gulf, while light to gentle SSE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft
prevail for the remainder of Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds over the NE Gulf
will persist through Wed night ahead of a frontal boundary.
Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region producing mainly
gentle to moderate southerly winds through Fri. Pulsing fresh
winds are expected northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night
through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low near central Cuba is triggering scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms near the S coast of W Cuba. Refer
to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection
across the Caribbean Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft are
present across the W and S central basin. Light to gentle with
locally moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the
rest of the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge east of
Florida and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support
moderate to fresh trade winds over the S central and NW
Caribbean. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras at night through the weekend. An area of low pressure
will produce some disorganized shower activity over the SW
Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next couple of days as it moves westward or west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 kt toward Central America. Thereafter,
land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico will likely limit further development of this system.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on Tropical Depressions Kate and Twelve.

A surface trough extends east-northeastward from SE of Bermuda
near 29N59W to 30N47W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring N of 28N between 44W and 56W. Refer
to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
additional convection across the Atlantic Basin.

A large 1023 mb high is over the N central Atlantic near 35N44W.
This feature is providing light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to
4 ft N of 10N between 40W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, except
near Tropical Depression Kate. Gentle to moderate S to SSW winds
and seas at 3 to 5 ft are seen N of 29N between 76W and the N
Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 4
to 7 ft are evident near the Canary Islands N of 15N between the
NW African coast and 40W. Outside the influence of Tropical
Depression Twelve, gentle to moderate SE to SSW winds and seas at
5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure gradient will
prevail through tonight with mainly light to gentle winds. Fresh
to strong southwest winds are expected just off northeastern
Florida on Wed ahead of a frontal boundary forecast to clip the
northwestern waters late Thu into Fri and weaken as it moves
across the northern waters W of 70W Sat through Sun night.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net