[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 08N between 30W to 33W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W from 18N southward,
moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted from
11N to 13N between 54W to 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 21N southward,
moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection from
17N to 22N between 78W to 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 06N41W. At this time, there is no coherent ITCZ west of the
monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 11N between 17W and 36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1017 mb high near 27N89W. A trough extends across
the western Gulf from 20N95W to 28N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted over the Bay of Campeche, S of 23N between
91W and 97W. An area of scattered moderate convection is along
the northeast Gulf from 28N to 30N between 84W and 86W. Light to
gentle winds are noted across the basin with seas ranging 1 to 3
ft.

For the forecast, the trough across the western Gulf will drift
west and gradually dissipate through this afternoon. High
pressure over the Gulf will drift westward and dominate the Gulf
region during the upcoming weekend, then re-establish itself over
the eastern Gulf by early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous strong convection is noted right along the Colombian
coast, S of 12N between 75W to 79W. Scattered moderate convection
is in the NW Caribbean, N of 17N between 75W and 89W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds north of
Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds across the central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the western
Caribbean. Seas range 5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean with seas
3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean will continue through early Mon, then diminish to fresh
speeds through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic ridge extends west southwest from a 1027 mb high
near 31N51W to northeast Florida. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted across the SW N Atlantic with light to
gentle winds across the area. Seas range 3 to 5 ft. In the
central Atlantic, a trough extends from 22N42W to 30N44W with no
significant convection. Otherwise, high pressure ridging also
extends across this area with light to gentle winds and seas 3
to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging near 27N
will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally
strong east winds during the late afternoons and at night just
off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches to
the Windward Passage through early next week. Moderate to fresh
south to southwest winds are expected across the far northwest
waters Sun night through Mon night.

In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N to NE winds are
noted especially off the coast of Morocco. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.

$$
AReinhart
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