[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from 18N southward and
moving W near 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 07N to 11N between 19W and 27W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 19N southward
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 04N to 10N between 30W and 41W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from 13N southward across
the Venezuela-Colombia border, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up across NE
Colombia and adjacent waters, and N Venezuela.

Another tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 81W from
S of Cuba at 20N southward to W Panama, and moving W near 10 kt.
Enhanced by an upper-level low N of Cuba near 24N79W, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are present from 17N to 22N between 77W
and 85W, including S central Cuba.

A third Caribbean tropical wave is at the W edge of the basin near
the Yucatan Peninsular along 88W southward across Belize and W
Honduras, and moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen over the SW corner of the basin and Honduras. This wave will
likely merge with the one from upstream near 81W in the next 6 to
12 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the Guinea-Bissau coast at 12N16W
to 10N27W to 07N38W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N38W to
just N of Suriname at 06N56W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident near the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N
between the African coast and 19W. Scattered convection is found
near the ITCZ from 04N to 09N between 45W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf near 24N89W. An upper-
level low is at the NW corner of the Gulf near 26N96W. This
combination is triggering isolated thunderstorms across W central
Gulf from 23N to 28N between 90W and the Texas-Mexico coast.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds near the W periphery of the
Atlantic ridge along with 1 to 2-foot seas prevail across the
entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough should remain over the
central Gulf aligned NE to SW, and maintain the chance of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wed afternoon.
The trough will drift toward the NW Gulf and weaken through Wed
night. In its wake, the Atlantic high pressure will begin to build
westward into the Gulf waters Wed and Thu, with a ridge persisting
along 27N into Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the W central basin, near the Honduras coast.
Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for more information on
additional convection. Gentle to moderate trades S of the Atlantic
ridge dominate the entire Caribbean basin. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are
present over the W basin, and 3 to 5 ft are found over the central
and E basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across the basin through Thu. The exception will be moderate to
locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia, in the Gulf of
Venezuela and Gulf of Honduras. Winds will begin to increase
across the E and central Caribbean Wed night through Thu night,
then persist through the weekend, as the Atlantic ridge builds
westward in the wake of a trough moving westward across the Atlc
waters north of the Greater Antilles.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above
for convection across the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge extends WSW from the 1031 mb Azores high across
Bermuda to Florida. The feature supports light to gentle winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft N of 26N between 40W and the Georgia-
Florida coast. Latest satellite scatterometer and altimetry data
reveal gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft from 10N to
26N between 34W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades
and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident near the Canaries Islands N of
19N between the NW African coast and 34W. Gentle to locally
moderate SE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast W of 45W, the Bermuda-Azores high extends a
ridge along 28N-29N to NE Florida. An inverted trough located
along 63W south of 23N will move quickly westward and across the
SE waters through tonight, then north of the Greater Antilles and
across the southern Bahamas Wed through Thu. Expect fresh to
locally strong easterly winds late afternoon through night just
off N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage,
most of the forecast period.

$$

Chan
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