[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low is centered near 29N79W. Satellite and radar data
Indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with the low
pressure remain disorganized and limited in coverage. However,
environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could still form overnight or on Monday
while the low moves west or west-northwestward or northwestward,
reaching the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia Monday
evening or Monday night. Interests in Florida should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 05N to 19N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted to
the south from 05N to 09N between 20W and 27W.

An Atlantic tropical wave along 59W south of 14N moving west at
15-20 kt, moving through Guyana and approaching Barbados. There
is reasonable evidence of this wave in Hovmoller diagrams going
back several days. Recent satellite-derived wind data from the
lower levels of the atmosphere hints the wave is restricted to
the deep tropics. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
08N to 14N between 55W and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from western
Hispaniola to northeast Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. The tropical
wave is moving west of an upper-level low centered off northern
Haiti. Dry, subsident air in the northerly flow on the west side
of this upper low, along with lingering, dry Saharan air, are
inhibiting any major convection near the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W from western Cuba to
western Panama, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated
with this wave is confined to near the monsoon trough, S of 12N
and is described below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N25W to 08N36W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N36W to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon and ITCZ E of 54W. The eastern Pacific monsoon
trough extends from off the coast of Colombia near 12N73W to near
the Costa Rica/Panama border near 09N82W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm either side of this monsoon
trough axis, with the threat for heavy rainfall in the southwest
Caribbean gradually winding down tonight.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Straits to the central
Gulf near 25N89W. Farther west, 1015 mb high pressure is
centered near 28N93W. A few showers are ongoing along the
trough. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the
Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure remains centered over the
NW Gulf while a trough extends from South Florida to near 25N89W.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist south of
the trough through Mon night as if drifts westward. Atlantic high
pressure will begin to build westward into the Gulf basin Wed and
Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on
convection across the Caribbean Basin.

The risk of flooding over the southwest Caribbean has diminished.
However, there are still lingering scattered showers and tstorms
in the area with less areal coverage compared to the previous days.
Light breezes and slight seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean,
and gentle to moderate trade winds with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere.
The trade wind flow is lighter than usual, related in part to a
relatively weaker subtropical ridge north of the area.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across the basin through Thu, with the exception of moderate to
locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia. Winds will
increase across the E and central Caribbean Thu night into Fri as
the Atlantic ridge builds westward in the wake of a trough moving
westward across the Atlantic waters north of the Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the low
east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on
the wave off the African coast.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Atlantic
>From south of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahamas, specifically
from 17N to 23N between 62W and 71W. This activity is tied to
upper level divergence between an upper low over the Turks/Caicos
Islands and an upper trough in the northwest flow aloft farther to
the northeast over the central Atlantic. A weak surface trough is
analyzed in this area of convection, from 21N61W to 31N63W.
Another trough is analyzed farther east, from 18N to 30N between
45W and 50W. The troughs are south of a 1029 mb high pressure near
39N35W. Scatterometer satellite passes indicated fresh SE winds
near western trough. This is evidence of a broader area of fresh
winds from 20N to 26N between 63W and 68W between the trough and
the ridge, with seas estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Similarly moderate
to fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely between the
eastern trough and the ridge, from 25N to 31N between 30W and 46W.
Aside from fresh to strong winds near the Cape Verde Islands and
off Morocco, this pattern is support generally moderate trade
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, an elongated area of showers
and thunderstorms associated with a Caribbean tropical wave
along 73W will continue to spread north and northwestward across
the waters E of 75W through Tue.

$$
Torres
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