[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 mb low is centered near 28N77W, about 160 nm east of
Cape Canaveral, Florida. This low continues to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas, N of 25N between
75W and 78W. However, the system lacks organized convection
activity near its center and therefore has not met the criteria
to be designated a tropical depression. Environmental conditions
are expected to remain marginally conducive for additional
development, and tropical depression could still form overnight or
on Sunday while the low moves generally westward at 10 knots
towards the east coast of Florida. Interests in Florida should
continue to monitor the progress of this system. This system has a
medium chance of development within 48 hours and the next 5 days.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov
for more information.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Southern Central
America, particularly in Panama, Costa Rica and Southern
Nicaragua. High moisture content, persistent monsoon flow, and
favorable conditions aloft will continue to support scattered to
numerous strong convection capable of producing torrential rain
through Monday. Heavy rainfall in these areas could cause
significant flooding and mudslides.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 19N southward, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the coast of
Africa from Guinea to Sierra Leone and E of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 68W from 23N southward,
moving W near 20 kt. This wave is interacting with an
upper-level low E of the SE Bahamas at 21N70W generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N to 26N between
64W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W from 22N southward,
moving W near 20 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across
southern Cuba near the wave in addition to enhanced convection
near the monsoon trough, S of 13N between 79W to 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea-Bissau
coast near 12N16W to 09N29W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues from
08N41W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N and between 24W-36W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is near the ITCZ from 03N
to 08N between 42W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends into the eastern Gulf from the Florida
coast near 26N82W to 26N86W. Scattered moderate convection is
near this trough from the Florida Keys north to the Big Bend and
E of 86W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is in the
north-central Gulf, N of 28N between 87W to 91W. Elsewhere, a 1017
mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N93W. Gentle to moderate
winds are noted across the basin with locally fresh winds likely
near the northwest Yucatan coast. Seas range between 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure of 1017 mb located over the NW
Gulf dominates most of the basin while a trough is over the NE
Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the trough persist
there tonight. The high pressure will meander and weaken through
Mon as a low pressure currently located about 175 nm east of
Daytona Beach, Florida meanders offshore of the Florida Peninsula,
then moves westward across north central Florida Sun night and
Mon and into the NE Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more information on
convection across the Caribbean Basin.

Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted across the SW Caribbean
Between 72W to 82W, associated to the tropical waves interacting
With the Pacific monsoon trough. A surface low is analyzed near
the coast of Panama near 09N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted across the Greater Antilles which are moving into
adjacent waters. Latest ASCT indicates gentle to moderate trades
across the Caribbean with locally fresh winds N of Colombia. Seas
range 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge N of the Caribbean will
weaken through early next week as the high shifts slowly NE and
low pressure persists offshore of the Florida coast. This will
lead to a diminished tradewinds across the basin through at least
Wed. Look for scattered showers and tstms across the extreme NE
Caribbean tonight associated with a fast moving tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the low
east of Florida and the Tropical Waves section for information on
the wave off the African coast.

High pressure centered near 37N38W extends west southwest to
27N63W. A surface trough is analyzed south of the high from
20N44W to 28N49W. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity
of the trough axis. West of 65W, a cold front extends southwest
to near 31N72W, moving southeast enhancing scattered moderate
convection north of 29N between 62W to 72W. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic with seas 4 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas to 5 ft are noted.

For the forecast W of 45W, a 1012 mb low pressure is currently
located about 160 nm east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional
development, but a tropical depression could still form over the
next day or so while the low drifts westward towards the Florida
Peninsula. Scattered squalls and tstms associated with a fast
moving tropical wave along 70W will move across the SE waters and
north of the Greater Antilles through tonight. Winds will veer SE
to the west of 60W through Mon as the Atlantic ridge shifts NE and
weakens.

In the eastern Atlantic, tranquil conditions prevail under
surface ridging anchored by a 1028 mb high near 36N38W. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are noted with seas 5 to 7 ft.

$$
Torres
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