[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 20N southward and
moving W near 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave since it is under strong subsidence aloft.

A Caribbean tropical wave is just W of Jamaica near 79W from 18N
southward across Panama, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the W
central Caribbean and near Jamaica.

Two tropical waves previously located over S Mexico and the
Yucatan Peninsula have merged into a single wave. This new wave
is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico near 92W. Scattered
showers are seen over the bay.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the Guinea-Bissau coast at 12N16W
to 10N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N44W to NE
Venezuela at 09N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present near the monsoon trough from 07N to 14N
between the African coast and 36W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident across N Venezuela and Guyana, and N of Suriname and
French Guiana, from 05N to 10N between 49W and 67W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on
convection.

Scatterometer and visible satellite data reveal a surface ridge
across the N Gulf near 27N. This feature is supporting light to
gentle SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft across the entire
Gulf.

For the forecast...the Bermuda High extends a ridge westward
along 30N and toward the north-central Gulf Coast. The ridge will
sink southward through today, providing tranquil conditions across
the Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the week. Moderate to
fresh E winds will pulse on Wed night to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diffluent winds aloft are coupling with convergent trades to
trigger scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across
Hispaniola and the central Caribbean. Please refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for additional convection.

Fresh to locally strong trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are seen
over the central and W central Caribbean basin. Gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the E basin. Gentle
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area combined
with lower pressure over N Colombia will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds over the central Caribbean through most of the week.
Expect an increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds
tonight through Wed night, reaching as far north as Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Winds near the coast of NE Colombia and the Gulf
of Venezuela will pulse to near gale force at times, through Thu.
Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and early
evenings in the Windward Passage through midweek. Fresh to strong
winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night and
Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends southwestward from a low SW of
Bermuda at 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are occurring from the central and SE Bahamas to
N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, from 19N to 26N between 64W and
79W. Enhanced by moderate vertical wind shear, convergent SE
winds are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across N
Florida and off the Georgia-S Carolina coast, N of 30N. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections
above for details on additional convection in the Atlantic.

Two ridges of high pressure over the central Atlantic, 1027 mb at
32N57W and 1028 mb at 32N37W continue to maintain light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft N of 23N between 36W and the Florida-
Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevail from 10N to 23N between 31W and the Lesser Antilles, and
near the Canarias Islands N of 22N between the NW African coast
and 36W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 45W, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in
the afternoons and evenings north of Hispaniola for the next
several days. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere
south of 22N. Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High
will slowly sink southward to 27N by midweek, leading toward
quiescent conditions across the remainder of the western Atlantic.

$$

Chan
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