[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: this wave is
moving through an area of large-scale subsidence. Any nearby
precipitation is related more to the monsoon trough.

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from Haiti
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: this wave is
moving through an area of large-scale subsidence. Any earlier
precipitation has been weakening and dissipating during the last
few hours. Any remnant rainshowers are from 17N, to 23N in the
Atlantic Ocean, between 68W and 74W.

A tropical wave is along 88W, from 16N southward, moving westward
5 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the western sections
of Honduras, through El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea from 20N southward from 83W westward.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 93W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, convective debris
clouds, and some remaining rainshowers cover the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico that encompasses from 23N southward between the NE
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula and 95W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 11N20W 09N30W 07N39W 07N43W. The
ITCZ is along 07N43W, to 08N58W in the coastal waters of Guyana.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 11N to 14N
between 13W and 17W in interior sections and in the coastal waters of
The Gambia, Senegal, and Guinea-Bissau; numerous strong is within
75 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 48W and 50W; scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough between 26W and 29W, and within 60 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 27W and 29W; widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of
monsoon trough between 35W and 38W, and within 120 nm to the south
of the ITCZ between 44W and 47W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, and within 380 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
08N to 10N between 58W and NE sections of South America.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 93W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, convective debris
clouds, and some remaining rainshowers cover the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico that encompasses from 23N southward between the NE
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula and 95W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge passes through central Florida, toward the coast of
Mexico near 23N98W. The surface pressure pattern is flat and weak.

A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High, westward along 30N,
and toward the north central Gulf Coast. The ridge will move
southward through Mon, providing tranquil conditions across the
Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh E
winds will pulse on Wed night to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The two main phenomena are tropical waves. One tropical wave
extends from Haiti southward. Precipitation: Any earlier
precipitation has been weakening and dissipating during the last
few hours. Any remnant rainshowers are from 17N to 23N in the
Atlantic Ocean, between 68W and 74W. The second tropical wave is
along 88W, moving through Honduras and El Salvador. Precipitation:
isolated moderate in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 20N
southward from 83W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08.5N/09.5N between 73W in Colombia
and 87W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 135 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from
80W westward; scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between the 72W/73W tropical wave and
77W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N
southward from 79W westward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The southwestern end of an upper level trough, from the Atlantic
Ocean near 31N70W, is reaching Cuba. Precipitation: isolated
moderate rainshowers are around Cuba, Hispaniola, the Windward
Passage, and the Bahamas.

Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 9 feet, from 10N to 18N between 69W and 81W.
Expect E winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights from 3 feet to
6 feet, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Windward Passage, from
20N to 21N between 71W and 75W.

The Bermuda High to the north of the area, combined with lower
pressure in N Colombia, will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds in the central Caribbean Sea through most of the week.
Expect an increase in areal coverage of strong wind speeds, from
Mon night through Wed night, reaching as far to the north as the
Hispaniola adjacent waters. The winds near the coast of NE
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela will pulse to near gale-force
at times, through Thu. Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the
afternoons and early evenings in the Windward Passage, tonight,
and again from Wed through Fri. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed night and on Thu
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N70W cyclonic circulation
center, to the Bahamas and to Cuba. Broad upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A surface trough extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N46W, to 27N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the waters from 25N northward between 40W and
52W.

A surface ridge extends from a 32N56W high pressure center, beyond
central Florida. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 34N37W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward, between Africa and 80W, away from the 32N46W-27N49W
surface trough.

Fresh-to-strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet
to 7 feet, cover the waters that are from 11N to 18N between 46W
and 55W. Expect E winds from 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights from
3 feet to 6 feet, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Windward
Passage, from 20N to 21N between 71W and 75W. Fresh- to-strong NE
winds cover the waters that are from 24N to 28N between 24W and
30W. Fresh-to-strong NE winds are in the area of the Canary
Islands, and within 180 nm to the SE of the Madeira Archipelago.
Expect sea heights ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet near the Canary
Islands, and ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet to the SE of the
Madeira Archipelago.

Fresh to strong E winds will occur in the afternoons and evenings,
to the north of Hispaniola, for the next several days. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere south of 22N. Surface
ridging associated with the Bermuda High will move southward to
27N, slowly, by midweek. Expect quiescent conditions in the
remainder of the western Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt/era
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