[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160903
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 02N to 20N with axis
along 26W, moving westward at 15 knots. The wave is embedded in
the dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, which is limiting convection
to scattered moderate from 05N to 12N between 16W and 28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 01N to 20N with
axis near 47W, moving west at 20 knots. This wave is also embedded
in the dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, which is limiting the
convection to 05N to 11N between 36W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 65W,
moving W at 10-15 knots. The wave is embedded in a region of
strong vertical shear that is limiting the convection to scattered
moderate from 11N to 14N between 63W and 67W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 21N with axis near 81W,
moving W at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are N of 19N between 78W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 08N33W where the ITCZ
continues to 05N46W. The ITCZ then resumes W of a tropical wave
from 05N49W to 05N53W. For information regarding convection, see
the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending from the SE CONUS will remain nearly
stationary through the middle of next week and will support the
continuation of gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will pulse at night
over the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters through the forecast
period as a diurnal surface trough moves into the Bay of Campeche
before dissipating.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area extending a ridge to the northern
Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh winds across
the central and eastern basin through today, except in the south-
central Caribbean where winds will be fresh to strong. Winds in
the south-central Caribbean are expected to expand in areal
coverage this weekend through Tue night as two tropical waves move
across the eastern and central basin. Otherwise, fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse at night in the Windward Passage through
Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure over the Georgia and South Carolina offshore
waters will maintain moderate to fresh E winds across the area
south of 25N. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night
north of Hispaniola through the forecast period as two tropical
waves propagate westward S of the area.

$$
Ramos
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