[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic from 05N to 21N with axis
along 24W, moving west at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted from 07N-13N between 15W and 24W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
21N with axis along 42W, moving west at around 20 kt. Dry air
encompasses this wave and no significant convection is occurring
in association with it.

A tropical wave has recently crossed the Lesser Antilles and
entered the eastern Caribbean, extending from 06N to 16N with axis
near 63W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is noted S of 13N between 58W and 63W.

A tropical wave stretches from Cuba to Panama along 79W, moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed in
association with this wave over waters near Cuba and Jamaica.

A tropical wave previously extended into the far SW Gulf of Mexico
has moved west into Mexico and the eastern Pacific, with
associated convection moving out of the basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from northern
Mauritania near 20N16W to 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from 07N34W
to 07N42W and from 05N45W to 04N54W. Convection in the vicinity of
these features is primarily associated with tropical waves,
described in the Tropical Waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...


A ridge positioned over the SE United States extends along the
northern coast of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E-SE wind flow
prevails across most of the basin with seas in the 2-4 ft range. A
surface trough has developed along the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, although the only convection in the Gulf is associated
with an upper level trough and is noted from 23N to 27N between
84W and 87W.

Surface ridging will prevail just north of the basin through this
weekend, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the
Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will slide southward over the northern
Gulf early next week, causing winds and seas to diminish further
Mon and Tue. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse tonight
over the waters to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula,
associated with a diurnal surface trough moving into the Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pressure gradient between a 1024 mb Bermuda High and a 1010 mb
Colombian Low is promoting strong NE trades just north of
Colombia with fresh and weaker trades prevailing elsewhere across
the Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft over the central and SW Caribbean
and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves described in the section above, dry conditions
prevail throughout the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure between Bermuda and Georgia
will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through Fri. These winds will then expand
in areal coverage this weekend through early next week as a
tropical wave enters the eastern Caribbean late Sat and moves into
the central Caribbean late Sun. Fresh winds will pulse at night
in the Windward Passage through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
about these features.

Expansive high pressure is dominating the wind flow over most of
the Atlantic basin. Fresh trades are occurring off the N coast of
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. In the far eastern
Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds are impacting waters in the
vicinity of the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient
between the high pressure to the west and lower pressure over
Africa. Elsewhere, generally moderate trades prevail S of 23N,
with gentle winds to the north. Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the
waters.

A surface trough is noted from 29N62W to 22N67W. Although
convection associated with this trough has diminished, new
convection has developed to the west where a new trough has formed
from 30N68W to 26N72W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, high pressure
centered E of Georgia will maintain moderate winds across the
area, except moderate to fresh south of 23N. A tropical wave will
bring fresh winds to Puerto Rico adjacent waters Sat night through
Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
through the forecast period, strongest Sat night and Sun night.

$$
KONARIK
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