[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W, from 13N
southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Monsoon trough
related precipitation surrounds this tropical wave mainly south of
11N.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W, from 13N
southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. ITCZ related
precipitation surrounds this tropical wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from western Cuba
southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted along and west of the wave
axis affecting Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N30W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the monsoon trough, while scattered showers prevail
along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by high
pressure centers analyzed over southeastern U.S. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate SE winds across
most of the basin, and moderate to fresh SE winds prevailing over
the Florida Straits and SE Gulf waters. The northern extension of
a tropical wave prevails over South Florida enhancing convection
over the peninsula and adjacent waters. To the south, the
combination of an approaching tropical wave from the western
Caribbean and upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered to
numerous moderate convection over the Yucatan Channel and
Peninsula.

The surface ridge just north of the area will maintain gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across much of
the Gulf through Fri. A surface trough will develop each day over
the Yucatan and shift westward into the SW Gulf. This will support
fresh to occasionally strong winds off the northwest Yucatan
Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours
through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.

The combination of the tropical wave over the western Caribbean
and upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered to numerous
moderate convection affecting the area west of 83W. No significant
convection is noted elsewhere.

Expect strong to near-gale force winds and sea heights ranging
from 8 to 13 ft from 18N southward between 69W and 82W through
the next 24 hours.

The tropical wave will continue to move west of the basin through
Wed. High pressure centered north of the region will continue to
support strong to near-gale force tradewinds and rough seas into
Wed over the central Caribbean, and strong NE winds across the
Windward Passage tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras late Wed. Winds and seas will
diminish across most of the basin from Wed through Fri, while
fresh to strong winds will pulse Thu and Fri in the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of NE Colombia. Looking ahead,
tradewinds and related seas will increase over the south-central
Caribbean and around the Leeward Islands this weekend as the next
tropical wave reaches the eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

A middle level to upper level trough extends from South Carolina
to SE Florida. Deep tropical moisture also prevails in the area,
enhanced by the northern extension of a tropical wave that
currently is analyzed over the western Caribbean. With these,
scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails across the west
Atlantic west of 77W. To the east, the reflection of an upper
level low is analyzed as a trough that extends from 28N54W to
19N60W. Scattered showers are noted within 300 nm west of the
trough. Another surface trough is analyzed from 30N44W to 18N48W.
No significant convection is noted wit this trough. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate E
winds across the basin, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off the
coast of Hispaniola tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
build Sat south of 22N and north of the Leeward Islands as a
tropical wave approaches the region from the east. Expect fresh to
strong winds to again pulse off Hispaniola by Sat and Sun.

$$
ERA
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