[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 12N
southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers prevail
from 07N-11N between 28W-34W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from
10N southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 12N to 22N between 60W and 72W.

The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed with axis
along 83W and south of 15N, moving west at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 17N between 80W
and 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 08N36W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 08N36W to
08N41W, and from 09N43W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with the monsoon trough is from 06N to 13N and east of
28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from the western Atlantic across
the basin. The periphery of an upper-level low centered over the
Bahamas extends over the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf
enhancing convection mainly east of 83W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the Florida
Straits and far east Gulf waters, while light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail west of 84W. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in
the northeast part of the basin with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will lift north of the area through
Mon. This will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas through mid week. The exception will be fresh to
occasionally strong winds off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and
eastern Bay of Campeche during overnight hours through mid week,
related to the surface trough that forms during the late
afternoon each day.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds prevailing
across most of the basin except over the northwest portion, where
gentle to moderate easterlies are noted. Seas range from 6 to 10
ft except in the far SE Caribbean, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.
Seas of 2 to 4 ft are within the northwestern portion of the
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the tropical wave across the E Caribbean will
move quickly across the central Caribbean tonight through Tue,
and then move west of the basin on Wed enhancing convection.
High pressure centered north of the region will build in the wake
of the tropical wave, supporting strong tradewinds and building
seas into Wed, including strong nocturnal NE winds across the
Windward Passage tonight through Tue night. Winds and seas will
diminish through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the section above for information the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface high centered near 36N50W supports gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow across the basin north of 25N and west of 40W
with 3 to 5 ft seas. An upper low centered just over the Bahamas
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
western Atlantic mainly west of 73W. The gradient between the
surface ridge extending from near Bermuda to central Florida and
a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean supports moderate to
fresh trade winds south of 25N west of 35W, with 6 to 8 ft seas
in open waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the surface ridge will lift north
to along 32N tonight through Tue. A large tropical wave moving
quickly across the eastern Caribbean will bring a surge in wind
and waves to the Atlantic waters north of Leeward Islands and
Puerto Rico through tonight, north of Hispaniola tonight through
Mon, then across the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern
Bahamas late Mon and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the
region by mid week as high pressure builds across the region in
the wake of the tropical wave.

$$
ERA
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