[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W/25W from 12N southward and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 06N between 24W and 26W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 09N
southward and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 21N southward moving W
15 to 20 kt. Aided by divergent upper-level winds aloft,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present
within 150 nm west of the tropical wave axis, north of 14N.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 08N to 13N
between 55W and 62W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 15N southward
to central Panama, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is flaring up over the SW Caribbean
basin from 10N to 15N W of 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15N16W to 09N25W to
07N35W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N35W to 06N39W, and
from 06N41W to 04N51W near the French Guiana- Brazil border.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from
08N to 11N east of 17W to the coast of Africa, from 07N to 09N
between 28W and 31W, and from 08N to 10N between 45W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from the western Atlantic across
the northern Gulf to South Texas. Divergent upper- level winds
are coupling with convergent SE winds along the surface ridge to
trigger scattered convection over the north-central Gulf. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh NE winds
off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where a surface
trough developed overnight. Fresh NE to E winds are also noted in
the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in most areas, slightly higher over
the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the ridge will lift north of the area through
Mon. This will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas through mid week. The exception will be fresh to
occasionally strong winds off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and
eastern Bay of Campeche during overnight hours through mid week,
related to the surface trough that forms during the late afternoon
each day.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Wave section for information on
convection.

Fresh to strong trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted across
the central Caribbean, driven by the pressure gradient between the
subtropical high north of the area and lower pressure over
Colombia and W Venezuela. Fresh NE winds and 6 ft seas are noted
in the Gulf of Honduras. In the eastern Caribbean, mainly
moderate trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident. Gentle to
moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will
move through the central Caribbean by late Mon or early Tue, and
then west of the basin through mid week. High pressure centered
north of the region will build in the wake of the tropical wave,
supporting strong tradewinds and building seas into Wed, to
include strong NE winds across the Windward Passage Tue night.
Winds and seas will diminish through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the section above for information the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface ridge extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. The
gradient between this ridge and a tropical wave over the eastern
Caribbean is supporting moderate fresh trade winds south of 25N
west of 35W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in open waters. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are noted along the ridge axis, north of
25N, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters. An upper low centered
just east of the central Bahamas is supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms near the approaches to the Windward Passage, and
north of the Leeward Islands where the tropical wave is present. A
few showers and thunderstorms is noted off northeast Florida over
the Gulf Stream. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the surface ridge from Bermuda to
central Florida will lift north of the area through tonight. A
large tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will bring
a surge in wind and waves to the Atlantic waters north Leeward
Islands today, north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Mon,
then across the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas late
Mon and Tue. Winds and seas will diminish across the region by
mid week as high pressure builds across the region in the wake of
the tropical wave.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net