[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090838
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 38.3N 75.7W at 09/0600 UTC
or 40 nm SW of Lewes, Delaware moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States
into New England, 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
limited flash and urban flooding for the northern Mid- Atlantic
States and considerable flash and urban flooding in New England.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. On the forecast
track, Elsa will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states
tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on
Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic
Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, Forecast/Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, and the High
Seas Forecast issued by the NWS Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more details.
For marine information within 60 nm of the coast, please see
products from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at
www.weather.gov.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale force winds over the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue morning
due to the pressure gradient bewteen high pressure north of the
area and lower pressure over northern Colombia. The winds will
diminish below gale force later this morning, but seas up to 13 ft
will persist off Colombia. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 28W/29W south of 11N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with a large amplitude has its
axis near 42W south of 25N, moving quickly west at 15 to 20 kt.
No convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave near 63W south of 13N in the eastern Caribbean,
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the far southwest Caribbean along 82W, south
of 13N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of
Panama and Costa Rica, due in part to the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 09N20W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to
03N35W to 04N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 08N between 15W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from western Atlantic across central
Florida to the north-central Gulf. A 0300 UTC scatterometer pass
indicated fresh to strong SE winds off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula between the surface ridge and a trough moving
off Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche. The same scatterometer pass
indicated fresh SE winds off the Texas coast, between the surface
ridge and 1009 mb low pressure over South Texas. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere, except light breezes are noted
along the coast of Florida. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are evident off South Texas and along the central
Tamaulipas coast of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the western
Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds will persist over the northwest
Gulf between the high pressure and lower pressure over Texas
through at least late Sat. Similarly, a trough will form off
northwest Yucatan Peninsula each evening, supporting fresh or
even strong winds during overnight hours through late Tue.
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist
over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features above for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia.

A scatterometer pass from around 03 UTC confirmed winds to minimal
gale force off the coast of Santa Marta, Colombia. The
scatterometer pass and buoy observations also indicated strong to
near gale force winds over much of the south-central Caribbean.
Seas are estimated to be as high as 13 ft in the area of gale
force winds, based on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data.
Seas in excess of 8 ft are also evident as far east as 65W, due to
the long duration and fetch of fresh to strong trade winds across
the eastern Caribbean. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted over the northwest Caribbean, except slightly higher along
the central and western coast of Honduras. There are scattered
showers and thunderstorms off Panama and Costa Rica due to trade
winds convergence, local drainage flow and perhaps aided by a
tropical wave move through that area. No significant shower or
thunderstorms activity is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area
combined with the Colombian low will enhance strong to gale force
winds north of Colombia through this morning. Fresh to strong
trades will continue in the south- central Caribbean and the Gulf
of Honduras through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at
night in the Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic remains under the influence of a strong
subtropical high north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh
trades prevail along the southern extent of the ridge, diminishing
to gentle over the W Atlantic. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong
NE winds are noted north of 18N east of 20W, with near-gales
between the Canary Islands and in Meteo-France's Agadir zone. Seas
are 8-10 ft in this area of strong winds, 4-6 ft in the W
Atlantic, and 5-7 ft in the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will build westward
across the area through Sun night. East winds will pulse to fresh
to strong speeds at night between the southeastern Bahamas and
Hispaniola through the period.

$$
Christensen
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