[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 090335
HLSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-091145-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 36
National Weather Service New York NY  AL052021
1135 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northeast Suffolk,
      Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 260 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about
      340 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 37.6N 76.5W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 25 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will track northeast through the Mid Atlantic
States overnight, and off the coast of New Jersey late tonight and
near or over eastern Long Island and southeast New England on
Friday morning.

The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash
flooding, weak tropical storm force winds along the south
shore and east end of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and
associated marine and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and
dangerous rip currents.

A widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
is forecast overnight into Friday. The highest amounts are
forecast to be across western Long Island, northeastern New Jersey,
the Lower Hudson Valley, and much of southern Connecticut. This will
present a likelihood for scattered areas of flash flooding,
particularly for areas that saw heavy rain over the last couple of days.

Dangerous marine conditions are likely on the ocean waters south of Long
Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and
eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most
likely in those areas, near the south shores and east end of Long Island
and southeast Connnecticut, and in some higher elevations away from the
coastline. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected along the
ocean beaches of Long Island through Friday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey,
and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - In hilly terrain, runoff may run quickly down
      valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
      mudslides.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.


* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
southern and eastern portions of Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across New York City, coastal southwestern Connecticut,
Northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut,
minor tree and powerline damage is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Tornadoes may be possible, with limited impacts across Long Island and
southeastern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time, with a
reasonable worst case scenario of up to 1 foot above ground level
acros vulnerable locales along Lower NY harbor, Jamaica Bay, Great
South Bay, coastal Westchester and coastal Connecticut.


* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Dangerous rip currents are expected at Atlantic ocean beaches
through Friday, as well as high surf and beach erosion. Minor
damage to dune structures is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember that during the storm 9 1 1
Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if
conditions are unsafe.

Keep cell phones well charged.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!

There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to
receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a
tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued. If a Tornado
Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news
outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible
changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 6am EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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