[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 081537
HLSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-082345-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 34
National Weather Service New York NY  AL052021
1137 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northeast Suffolk,
      Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 510 miles southwest of New York City NY or about 600
      miles southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 35.0N 79.7W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 20 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will continue approaching from the south through this
evening.The storm will then pass near or over the Mid Atlantic coast late
tonight, and near or over Long Island and southeast New England on Friday
morning.

The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash
flooding, tropical storm force winds especially along the south shore
of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and associated marine
and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and dangerous rip
currents.

A widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is
forecast from Thursday afternoon into Friday. The highest amounts are
forecast to be from NYC to the north and west. Dangerous marine
conditions should also develop on the ocean waters south of Long
Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and
eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most
likely in those areas, near the south shores of Long Island and
southeast Connecticut. Dangerous rip currents at the ocean
beaches of Long Island.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts
across across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Heavy rain may cause flash flooding and may prompt some water
      rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and may overspill their banks in a few places,
      especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Some road closures
      are possible.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Tornadoes may be possible, with limited impacts across Southeast New
York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southeast
New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, with a
reasonable worst case scenario of up to 1 foot above ground level.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
There is potential for dangerous rip currents through Friday,
as well as high surf and beach erosion on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the
center of the storm.


When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to
become unsafe.

Closely monitor https://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local
news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible
changes to the forecast.

There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to
receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a
tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 6 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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