[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 080553
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MOVING THROUGH EASTERN GEORGIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected this morning, followed by a faster
northeastward motion later today.  On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over Georgia this morning, over South Carolina and North
Carolina later today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by
tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on
Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some
re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close
to the northeastern United States.  Elsa is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mostly southeast of the center near the coast.  A few hours ago,
wind gusts of 75 to 80 mph (120 to 130 km/h) were reported from
Weatherflow stations near Tybee Island, Georgia, in a severe
thunderstorm in an outer rain band.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast for the next several hours,
along the South Carolina coast this morning, along the North
Carolina coast later today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by
this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are likely today, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from
late tonight through tonight are possible, which could lead
to limited flash and urban flooding.

>From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches are possible today into Friday. This could
lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this morning from
southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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