[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 072056
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Long Island from East
Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from
Port Jefferson Harbor to the eastern tip along the north shore.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of southern
New England from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach,
Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard,
and Nantucket.

All warnings have been discontinued along the Florida Gulf coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over
land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and
along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to
3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches.
Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest
Florida.  Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and
isolated moderate flood.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible.  This
could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina.  The tornado threat should move into the eastern
Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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