[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 071459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE
NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued.

The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the
Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon.  A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into
Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this
afternoon into tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach,
Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h)
gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar
Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting
to 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast
of Florida in the warning area today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to
3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina.  The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of
Florida through today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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