[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KJAX 070923
HLSJAX
FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425-GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364-071730-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 29
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052021
523 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TORNADO THREAT INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Brantley, Central Marion, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal
      Glynn, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Marion, Echols, Gilchrist,
      Hamilton, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn, Inland Nassau,
      Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia, Northern Ware,
      Pierce, Southern Columbia, Southern Ware, Suwannee, Union,
      Wayne, Western Alachua, Western Charlton, and Western Marion

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 180 miles southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 90 miles
      west-southwest of Ocala FL
    - 28.5N 83.5W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa will continue to track north near the Florida
Gulf Coast this morning with landfall expected across the Florida Big
Bend around midday today. Elsa will then track north to northeast
across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia through this evening.
Outer rainbands from Elsa will continue to increase across northeast
Florida this morning, expanding northward across southeast Georgia
through the afternoon. Sustained tropical storm force winds will
overspread portions of the Suwannee River Valley focused over counties
along and west of Interstate 75 across northeast Florida this morning,
then the envelop of sustained tropical storm force winds will progress
northeast across portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia
through this evening. The greatest widespread hazard from Elsa will be
the potential for flooding rainfall. Storm total rainfall amounts of
3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts up to 9 inches are possible.
The tornado threat will continue across northeast Florida this morning
and expand across portions of southeast Georgia through the day.
Hazardous beach conditions including frequent rip currents and rough
surf will persist through Wednesday evening.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
Suwannee River Valley in northeast Florida. Remain well sheltered from
dangerous wind having possible significant impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across portions of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Remain well
sheltered from hazardous wind having possible limited impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across portions of north central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the rest of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal southeast Georgia. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for
updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a
battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your
shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best
foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net