[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 070900
HLSTAE
FLZ018-019-028-029-034-118-127-128-134-GAZ159>161-071700-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Rain Bands from Tropical Storm Elsa Moving Onshore **


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Brooks, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, Lanier, Lowndes,
      and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Jefferson and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 150 miles southeast of Apalachicola or about 120 miles
      south of Steinhatchee River
    - 27.9N 83.5W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Elsa has weakened slightly to a strong tropical storm over the last
couple of hours and is currently northwest of the Tampa Bay area. Elsa
is forecast to make landfall somewhere along the FL Nature Coast late
Wednesday morning or around noon as a strong tropical storm, with a
few gusts to hurricane force possible right along the Dixie county
coast.

Watches and Warnings remain the same for this advisory. Conditions
will begin to deteriorate across the Southeast Big Bend and Apalachee
Bay tonight as Elsa approaches the region. Strong tropical storm force
winds will be possible across the SE Big Bend into far South-Central
GA, with some gusts to hurricane force possible along the Dixie County
coast. Storm surge of 3 to 5 feet will be possible for Apalachee Bay,
primarily between Steinhatchee and Suwannee given the latest westward
shift in the track. Additionally, landfall is expected near high tide
which could contribute to those higher surge forecasts to be realized.
Further west, surge of 2 to 4 feet will be possible for Central
Apalachee Bay, mainly due to breezy easterly winds on the north side
of Elsa. Any small wobbles to the east or west by Elsa on approach can
have large impacts on where this highest forecast surge will be
realized. Flooding rains will be possible across the area, with 2 to
4 inches of rainfall with isolated pockets of 5 to 6 inches possible
across the SE Big Bend. An areal flood warning has been issued for
eastern Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie counties until 430 PM EDT to
account for expected hazardous ponding water over the next several
hours as rain bands train over the area. Saturated soils from rainfall
the past few days will make it easier for the forecast rainfall with
Elsa to create flooding issues. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
most of the eastern Big Bend and South-Central Georgia to account for
this threat. Additionally, a few tornadoes will be possible across the
Southeast Big Bend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Southeast Big Bend. Remain well sheltered from
life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
across the Florida Big Bend and South-Central GA. Remain well sheltered from
dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
coastal Dixie County. Remain well away from life-threatening
surge having possible significant impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Potential impacts from the main surge event are also now unfolding
across Apalachee Bay. Remain well away from locally
hazardous surge having possible limited impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Southeast Big Bend. Remain well guarded against dangerous
flood waters having possible significant impacts.
If realized, these impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Florida Big Bend and South-Central GA. Remain well guarded against locally
hazardous flood waters having possible limited
impacts.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the SE Big
Bend. Remain well braced against a tornado event
having possible  limited impacts. If realized,
these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials
have given the all clear to return.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch
or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic
rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the
safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net