[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 062111
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FLZ018-019-028-029-034-118-127-128-134-GAZ159>161-070515-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
511 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Tropical Storm Warnings Have Been Expanded Into Georgia Counties**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lanier
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Brooks and Lowndes

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Jefferson and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Taylor
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Brooks, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, Lanier, Lowndes,
      and Madison

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 270 miles south of Steinhatchee River or about 240 miles
      south of Suwannee River
    - 25.8N 83.0W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is northwest of Sarasota this afternoon and is
expected to track roughly parallel to the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula through late tonight, with some strengthening anticipated.
Elsa is forecast to make landfall as a low end Category one hurricane
somewhere along the Southeast Big Bend early Wednesday morning
before moving across South Georgia later that afternoon. Hurricane
Warnings remain in effect from the Steinhatchee River and points south,
and for the adjacent Gulf of Mexico coastal waters. Lowndes, Brooks,
and Lanier Counties have also upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
Conditions look to deteriorate across Apalachee Bay and the Southeast
Big Bend as early as Tuesday evening. Tropical Storm Watches have been
dropped for Franklin county; however, Tropical Storm Warnings still
remain in effect for the coastal waters along Franklin county.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Southeast Big Bend
and Apalachee Bay on Tuesday night, then into the Eastern Big Bend and
portions of adjacent South-Central Georgia on Wednesday, with
hurricane conditions possible across coastal Dixie County. Strong winds
could cause downed trees, power outages, and loose items blown around.
A storm surge of around 2 to 4 feet is forecast across coastal areas
from Ochlocknee River to Aucilla River and 3 to 5 feet eastward to the
Suwannee River. These values remain heavily dependent on any track and
intensity changes. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts near
5 to 6 inches will be possible with Elsa. This rainfall could cause
some localized flooding issues across the Southeast Big Bend. An
isolated tornado or two will also be possible across the Southeast Big
Bend and portions of adjacent South- Central Georgia.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the rest of the Big Bend and South-Central
Georgia.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Eastern Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Western Apalachee Bay.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across far Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across far Southeast Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Southeast Big Bend and portions of South-Central Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which
you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides.
Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for
instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around , or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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