[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 062039
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little
while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the
storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt.  Elsa is a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge
of the main area of deep convection.  Much of the western half of
the circulation continues to lack significant shower or
thunderstorm activity.  Moderate westerly vertical shear, along
with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the
cyclone until landfall within the next day or so.  However
this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some
slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a
hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt.  A continued northward
track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical
cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  A turn toward the north-northeast
along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late
tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast
over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the  eastern
United States and eastern Canada.  The official track forecast is
similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of
the model consensus tracks.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides.  As Elsa moves across the western and
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.  Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of
southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 25.8N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 27.5N  83.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 30.0N  82.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  08/0600Z 32.3N  81.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/1800Z 34.8N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/0600Z 37.4N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  09/1800Z 40.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  10/1800Z 48.5N  58.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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