[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 062038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia
from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven
Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry
Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening
situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday.  On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today through tonight.  Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making
landfall.  Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1-minute
sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas
tonight and early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and
South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula.  The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin
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